Probabilistic modeling of hurricane surge and rainfall flooding in a changing climate

Water and the Changing Climate Chair: Jeanne VanBriesen (Carnegie Mellon University) Global climate change is changing the frequency and magnitude of precipitation events in many regions, and further change is expected. Effects on precipitation-dependent events (drought, flood) as well as on rainfall-dependent systems (water supply, energy systems, agriculture) will challenge our study and management of hydrologic systems. This session will explore methods to study, model, and plan for hydrologic systems under changing climactic conditions. \"Probabilistic modeling of hurricane surge and rainfall flooding in a changing climate\" Speaker: Ning Lin (Princeton University) Co-Authors: Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), James Smith (Princeton University), Joannes Westerink (University of Notre Dame) Hurricanes, with their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing hurricane activity due to climate change. Here we present a framework of modeling hurricane hazards in a changing climate. We apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model driven by global climate models (GCMs) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under various projected climate scenarios. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC to simulate the coastal storm surge induced by the synthetic storms. We apply a physics-based hurricane rainfall model coupled with a distributed hydrologic model to simulate the riverine flooding induced by the synthetic storms. Then we apply statistical analysis to estimate the rainfall and surge flood probabilities under the various climate conditions, based on the simulated synthetic rainfall and storm surge events. We are currently coupling the coastal storm surge and inland rainfall modeling to investigate the compound flooding induced by hurricanes under climate change.《水与气候变化》 主席：珍妮·范布里森（Jeanne VanBriesen，卡内基梅隆大学） 全球气候变化正改变诸多区域降水事件的发生频次与强度，且未来变化仍将持续。依赖降水的事件（干旱、洪涝）以及降雨依存系统（供水、能源系统、农业）所受影响，将对水文系统的研究与管理带来挑战。本专场将探讨气候变化情境下水文系统的研究、建模与规划方法。 "气候变化背景下飓风风暴潮与降雨洪涝的概率建模" 演讲者：林宁（普林斯顿大学） 共同作者：克里·伊曼纽尔（麻省理工学院）、詹姆斯·史密斯（普林斯顿大学）、约翰内斯·韦斯特林克（圣母大学） 飓风凭借强风、强降雨与风暴潮在全球范围内造成大量破坏与人员伤亡。随着沿海快速开发、海平面上升，以及气候变化可能加剧的飓风活动，未来数十年间这类风暴的影响或将进一步加重。本文提出一套气候变化背景下的飓风灾害建模框架：我们采用由全球气候模型（Global Climate Models, GCMs）驱动的统计/确定性飓风模型，在多种预估气候情景下模拟大量合成风暴；借助水动力模型ADCIRC模拟合成风暴引发的沿海风暴潮；结合基于物理过程的飓风降雨模型与分布式水文模型，模拟合成风暴导致的河道洪涝。随后，基于模拟得到的合成降雨与风暴潮事件，我们通过统计分析估算不同气候条件下的降雨与风暴潮洪水概率。目前我们正将沿海风暴潮与内陆降雨建模相结合，以探究气候变化背景下飓风引发的复合型洪涝。