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This article will explain what advantages retail investors have over high salaried investment managers and institutions and why Warren Buffets bet that any investment manager cannot outperform the SNP500 was free money. Rebalancing Take a simple example of 2 companies: Apple and IBM. Over the last 5 years Apple is up almost 5x while IBM has done practically nothing. Had you started with a portfolio equally weighted with both companies 5 years ago and rebalanced monthly you would have to sell/Trim Apple regularly and use the funds to purchase additional IBM stock. Now scale that up to 10, or 100 companies. Over the long run most will go up, some will go down and a select few will explode upwards. With rigid rules like “no company can represent more than 3% of the portfolio. As one company goes parabolic (AMD, NVDA, Apple, Tesla etc..) if you let it ride it will ultimately represent 10%+ of the portfolio. however with rebalancing you are taking from the winners and giving to the losers, in many cases stocks that have no business in any portfolio. Bond Allocation Disclosure: I work in the insurance industry as an actuary creating insurance policies, most of the policies are hedged by bonds (we buy in billions). However the value and total return of a bond index actually does better in a decreasing interest rate environment than a rising one. Older bonds yielding 4-10% have multiplied in value as interest rates have decreased since 1982, the last 38 years. Just for some context the interest / bond yield was 15% in 1982, and has decreased to almost 0% today. Over the last 38 years bonds h… Older bonds yielding 4-10% have multiplied in value as interest rates have decreased since 1982, the last 38 years. Just for some context the interest / bond yield was 15% in 1982, and has decreased to almost 0% today. Over the last 38 years bonds have done very well, however investing them today is like looking in the rear view mirror to drive forward, this performance will not be repeated unless we get into negatives as shown above.Source : I made this As seen above any portfolio containing bonds since 1982 has delivered what seems to be risk free excess returns. However now that we are at the end of the cycle, the famous 60/40 Stock/Bond or 50/50 etc.. will all significantly underperform historic…本文将阐释个人投资者相较于高薪投资经理与机构投资者所具备的竞争优势，同时解释为何沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）提出的「任何投资经理均无法跑赢标普500指数（S&P 500）」的论断，实则是一笔无成本的正确押注。 再平衡（Rebalancing） 我们以两家公司为例展开简单说明：苹果公司（Apple）与国际商业机器公司（IBM）。过去五年间，苹果股价涨幅近5倍，而IBM股价几乎毫无起色。若你在五年前构建了两只股票等权重的投资组合，并按月进行再平衡，则需定期减持苹果股票，并用所得资金增持IBM股份。 将这一案例推广至10家乃至100家公司的投资组合中：从长期来看，多数个股会实现上涨，部分个股会下跌，仅有极少数个股会实现爆发式增长。若遵循"单一个股持仓占比不得超过投资组合的3%"这类刚性规则，当某只个股出现暴涨行情时（如超威半导体（AMD）、英伟达（NVDA）、苹果、特斯拉（Tesla）等），若放任其持仓占比自然增长，最终该个股的持仓占比将突破10%。而通过再平衡操作，你可以从上涨个股中兑现收益，转而加仓下跌个股——其中不少下跌个股本就不该出现在投资组合中。 债券配置（Bond Allocation） 免责声明：本人任职于保险行业，担任精算师一职，负责设计保险产品，其中绝大多数产品均通过债券进行风险对冲（年采购规模达数十亿量级）。但实际上，债券指数的估值与总回报在利率下行环境中的表现要优于利率上行环境。 自1982年以来的38年间，随着利率持续下行，收益率介于4%-10%的旧债估值实现了数倍增长。作为背景补充，1982年的债券收益率曾高达15%，而如今这一数字已降至近乎0%。过去38年里，债券市场表现亮眼，但当下投资债券犹如通过后视镜驾驶前行——除非像前文所述进入负利率时代，否则此前的优异表现将难以复刻。本文内容均为原创。 如前文所述，自1982年以来，任何包含债券的投资组合都实现了看似无风险的超额收益。但如今我们已处于这一周期的尾声，经典的60/40股债组合、50/50股债组合等策略的表现，都将大幅逊于历史平均水平。