Zambezi River Basin Hydropower Assumptions

This project is a research initiative designed to address the major
uncertainties facing hydropower development in the region, and to deepen
understanding among stakeholders of the risks to hydropower from
changes in climate and increased upstream water demand.
For 18 months, researchers from the University of Cape Town, the
Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering (Zambia) at the
University of Zambia, OneWorld Sustainable Investments, University of
Eduardo Mondlane, and Pöyry Management Consulting have been developing
and applying a water supply and demand modelling tool for the Zambezi
River Basin. The research was guided by a Steering Committee led by the
Southern African Power Pool and including the Zambezi River Authority,
the ZAMCOM Interim Secretariat, Southern African Development Community
Energy, the UK Department for International Development, and the Climate
and Development Knowledge Network.
The model was applied to two future climate scenarios, reflecting
possible “wetting” or “drying” climates, and two scenarios for
irrigation expansion in the region. The results of the analysis point
to dramatic potential negative impacts on major existing and planned
hydropower investments.
The research team and funders are committed to making this research
accessible and in the public domain, including all of the modelling.
This page includes links to all of the final deliverables of the
project, including the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and
underlying datasets behind this.
See more at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf

本项研究计划旨在解决该地区水电开发所面临的主要不确定性，并深化利益相关方对气候变化和上游用水需求增加对水电风险的理解。在为期18个月的期间内，来自开普敦大学、赞比亚大学能源、环境与工程中心（Zambia）、OneWorld可持续投资、莫桑比克爱德华多·蒙达内大学以及Pöyry管理咨询公司的研究人员共同开发并应用了一套针对赞比西河流域的水资源供需模拟工具。该研究在南方非洲电力池的领导下，并由赞比西河管理局、ZAMCOM临时秘书处、南方非洲发展共同体能源部门、英国国际发展部以及气候与发展知识网络组成的指导委员会的指导下进行。该模型被应用于两种未来气候情景，反映了可能出现的“湿润”或“干旱”气候，以及该地区灌溉扩张的两种情景。分析结果预示着对现有和计划中的主要水电投资可能产生显著的负面影响。研究团队和资助者致力于使这项研究成果易于获取，并置于公共领域，包括所有的模拟数据。本页面包含了项目所有最终交付成果的链接，包括水资源评估与规划（WEAP）模型及其背后的数据集。更多详情请参阅：http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf