Replication data for: Testing for the Strong Form of Rational Expectations with Heterogeneously Informed Agents

In recent years, political scientists have tested for the existence of rational expectations (RE) using survey-based aggregate data on subjective economic perceptions. These tests suffer from several conceptual shortcomings of a nontrivial nature. In this study, the meaning of RE is clarified, and also a test for strong rational expectations (SRE) where citizens possess heterogeneous information levels is set forth. These empirical tests provide insights into what kinds of information citizens use in forming expectations from that which they do not utilize but could employ to arrive at more accurate forecasts. Using inflation expectations data for the period January 1978–December 1993, the empirical findings indicate that citizens can benefit from greater reliance on objective economic and political conditions when formulating their inflation expectations. The broader implications of this work pertain not only to the execution of RE tests in political science, but also to distinguishing which types of information people do and do not (but could) incorporate in their decision-making calculus.

近年来，政治学者借助基于调查的主观经济感知汇总数据，对理性预期（Rational Expectations, RE）的存在性开展了检验。此类检验存在若干具有实质意义的概念性缺陷。本研究厘清了理性预期的内涵，并构建了适用于公民信息水平存在异质性情形的强理性预期（Strong Rational Expectations, SRE）检验方法。本次实证检验揭示了公民在形成预期时所利用的信息类型，以及那些虽未被采用但可用于提升预测精度的潜在可用信息。通过使用1978年1月至1993年12月的通胀预期数据，实证结果表明：公民在构建通胀预期时，若更多地依托客观经济与政治环境信息，可获得更优的预期效果。本研究的广义启示不仅关乎政治科学领域内理性预期检验的实施，更有助于厘清人们在决策演算中实际采用、未采用但可采用的信息类型。