Replication Data for: Coup d'etat or Coup d'Autocracy? How Coups Impact Democratization, 1950-2008

This paper considers how coups impact democratization. Current research focuses on coups as a threat to consolidated and fledgling democracies. Policy-makers have adapted to this viewpoint by treating coups as unjustifiable maneuvers that must be curtailed, with states frequently terminating aid and IOs suspending membership following a coup. While coups clearly confound democratic consolidation, it is notable that the vast majority of coups do not happen in democracies. Therefore, we focus on authoritarian regimes in seeking to discover how coups might open paths towards democratization. We first argue that successful coups should promote democratization because leaders have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth. Second, we view failed coups as credible signals that leaders must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power. Empirical analyses strongly support the argument that coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise.

本文探讨政变对民主化的影响。现有研究多将政变视为巩固型民主与新兴民主政体的威胁。政策制定者亦顺应这一研究视角，将政变视作必须予以遏制的不正当行径，政变发生后各国常会终止对外援助，国际组织（International Organizations，IOs）也会暂停相关成员国资格。尽管政变显然会干扰民主巩固进程，但值得注意的是，绝大多数政变并未发生在民主政体之中。有鉴于此，本文聚焦威权政权，旨在探究政变如何为民主化开辟路径。其一，本文认为成功政变可推动民主化进程：领导人存在快速推进民主化的动机，以此确立政治合法性并促进经济增长。其二，本文将失败政变视作一种可信信号：领导人必须推行切实有效的改革以维持执政地位。实证分析有力验证了"政变可推动民主化"这一论点，尤其在那些原本最不可能实现民主化的国家中效果更为显著。