Data and code from: The effects of climate change on European distributions of four alien marine crab species

The rate of marine species introductions in the European Union (EU) continues to increase, with climate change facilitating their spread and impact. Crabs and other crustaceans are among the most successful groups of marine invasives, they are well-adapted to thrive in novel environments and can have significant negative ecological and economic impact where they become established. To effectively assess the ecological and economic threats posed by these species, and to support potential mitigation strategies, it is important to be able to determine current distributions, and to predict the potential for further range expansion under expected climate scenarios. We studied the current distribution and future distribution under various climate change scenarios of four predatory brachyuran crabs that were previously identified as species of concern for European seas namely, Portunus segnis, Charybdis longicollis, Hemigrapsus sanguineus, and Matuta victor. Species distribution models were built using an ensemble modelling approach. The results show that the potential distributions for all species are much larger than the current known distributions. Under all predicted climate change scenarios, the climatic conditions for P. segnis, C. longicollis, and M. victor, in particular, are expected improve in most of the Mediterranean sea, resulting in an expansion of suitable habitat. The Adriatic and Aegean seas are of particular concern as the results show that these seas are not only highly suitable under current climatic conditions but that these will become more suitable under all climate scenarios. It is, therefore, important to further investigate potential impacts, to increase monitoring, and explore possible management strategies for these seas in order to manage the invasion of these species and avoid future biodiversity and economic losses.