Climate change will shrink phylogenetic endemism of neotropical frogs

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the main current threats to biodiversity 1 and predicting its consequences is critical to conservation efforts. A wide range of studies have evaluated the effects of future climate using taxon-based metrics 2, but few studies to date have applied a phylogenetic approach to forecast these impacts. Here, we show that future climate change will significantly modify not only species richness, (SR) but also phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) of Neotropical frogs. Our results show that 29% (n = 92) of species will shrink their potential distributions and 2.08% (n = 8) will disappear by 2050. Furthermore, we find that current areas of high SR and PD are not congruent with some areas of high PE in the future. Our study highlights the impacts of climate change on Neotropical frog diversity and identifies target areas for conservation efforts that consider not just species numbers, but also their distinct evolutionary histories.气候变化目前被广泛认为是对生物多样性[1]的主要威胁之一，准确预测其影响对于生物保护工作至关重要。现有大量研究已通过基于类群的指标[2]（taxon-based metrics）评估了未来气候变化的影响，但迄今为止鲜有研究采用系统发育方法来预测此类影响。本研究表明，未来气候变化不仅将显著改变新热带蛙类的物种丰富度（species richness, SR），还将改变其系统发育多样性（phylogenetic diversity, PD）与系统发育特有性（phylogenetic endemism, PE）。研究结果显示，到2050年，29%（共92种）的物种潜在分布范围将缩减，另有2.08%（共8种）的物种将彻底灭绝。此外，我们发现当前物种丰富度与系统发育多样性较高的区域，在未来将与部分系统发育特有性较高的区域不再重合。本研究阐明了气候变化对新热带蛙类多样性的影响，并明确了兼顾物种数量与物种独特演化历史的保护优先区域。