Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN

Most forecasting models for American presidential elections provide estimates of the national two-party vote. Since popular vote winners generally win a majority of Electoral College votes, these models can normally assume that their forecast offers a clear indication of who will end up in the Oval Office. Evidently, this assumption is not always warranted. In this short paper, we develop a forecasting model which draws on data from the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia since the 1980 presidential election. This State-by-State Political Economy Model (2SPE Model) produces vote share forecasts for the two major party candidates in every state which can then be used to make a projection of the Electoral College result.