Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN

Most forecasting models for American presidential elections provide estimates of the national two-party vote. Since popular vote winners generally win a majority of Electoral College votes, these models can normally assume that their forecast offers a clear indication of who will end up in the Oval Office. Evidently, this assumption is not always warranted. In this short paper, we develop a forecasting model which draws on data from the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia since the 1980 presidential election. This State-by-State Political Economy Model (2SPE Model) produces vote share forecasts for the two major party candidates in every state which can then be used to make a projection of the Electoral College result.多数美国总统选举预测模型均会对全国范围内两党得票率进行预估。由于普选获胜者通常能拿下多数选举人团选票，因此这类模型通常会假设其预测结果能够清晰表明哪位候选人将入主白宫。但显然，这一假设并非总能成立。在本短篇论文中，我们构建了一款预测模型，其数据来源涵盖1980年美国总统选举以来美国50个州以及哥伦比亚特区的相关数据。这款逐州政治经济模型（State-by-State Political Economy Model，简称2SPE模型）会为每个州的两大政党候选人分别预测得票率，进而可用于推演选举人团的最终结果。