Using predictive models to identify kelp refuges in marine protected areas for management prioritisation

Kelp forests serve as the foundation for shallow marine ecosystems in many temperate areas of the world but are under threat from various stressors, including climate change. To better manage these ecosystems now and into the future, understanding the impacts of climate change and identifying potential refuges will help to prioritise management actions. In this study, we use a long-term dataset of observations of kelp percentage cover for two dominant canopy-forming species off the coast of Victoria, Australia: Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa. These observations were collected across three scuba sampling programs that extend from 1998 to 2019. We then associated those observations with habitat and environmental variables including depth, seafloor structure, wave climate, currents, temperature, and population connectivity in generalised additive mixed effects models and used these models to develop predictive maps of kelp cover across the Victorian MPAs. These models were also us..., Parks Victoria Subtidal Reef Monitoring Program (SRMP)
Parks Victoria SRMP targets areas within MPAs and sites directly adjacent to them and uses visual census methods developed by Edgar and Barrett (1997), Edgar and Barrett (1999), and Edgar et al. (1997). There are 80 SRMP sites used in this study that extend from 1998 to 2013. Each site within the sampling program was marked by GPS and visited in subsequent survey years where a 200 m transect was laid along a shallow (< 10 m) contour. To quantify the percentage coverage of kelp, 0.25 m2 quadrats, which are divided into a grid of 7 x 7 perpendicular wires to provide 49 points plus one corner making 50, are placed at 10 m intervals along the transect. The cover of kelp is then estimated by counting the number of times the species intersects with one of the points. These point counts are then divided by 50 and averaged across all quadrats in the transect to come up with a percentage coverage of each kelp for each site. For this proje..., , # Using predictive models to identify kelp refuges in marine protected areas for management prioritisation

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2547d7x23](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2547d7x23)

## Description of the data and file structure

### Percentage cover of Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa across Victoria, Australia and associated environmental covariates

Access this dataset on Dryad ([https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2547d7x23](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2547d7x23))

These datasets contain separate percentage cover information for *Ecklonia radiata* and *Phyllospora comosa* along the coastal waters of Victoria, Australia along with the habitat and environmental conditions associated with the spatial location of each sample. This dataset is a combination of three different sampling programs, outlined in the **Methods** section.

## Description of the data and file structure

These datasets are .csv files that contain information on percentage cover of *Ecklonia radiata* (Ec...