Future abundance and distribution of key bird species for pathogen transmission in the Netherlands

We have modelled the current and future abundance and distribution of
three different bird species in the Netherlands: blackbirds, mallards, and
house sparrows. These are all species which are widespread in
north-western Europe and which are likely to play a role in the
transmission of several pathogens. We used random forest models created
using the SDMaps R package. Climate, land use, and vegetative cover were
all found to be important predictors. We found that the abundance of
mallards and house sparrows is expected to increase in the future, while
the abundance of blackbirds shows little change. These changes will likely
have consequences for disease risk. By providing these future abundance
maps, we are enabling detailed modelling of the future risk of disease
outbreaks.