Thailand Trade Strategic Risk Analysis Reproducibility Package: Evidence Ledger, Risk Scoring Model, Sensitivity Tests, and Trade Indicator Records

This dataset provides a reproducibility package for a strategic analysis of Thailand’s trade structure, trade-risk exposure, and evidence-based policy judgement. The package is designed to support transparent review, structured reanalysis, and auditability of the analytical claims, evidence anchors, risk-scoring logic, sensitivity tests, and figure-level documentation used in the related Thailand trade strategy report. The package contains reconstructed trade indicator records, an evidence ledger, a judgement matrix, a strategic trade-risk scoring table, a Python risk-score verification script, a sensitivity-test matrix, a figure registry, checksum records, and version-history documentation. The analytical focus includes Thailand’s long-term trade expansion, import-export balance shifts, partner-country dependence, China-related import dependence, upstream supply-chain exposure, energy-price risk, exchange-rate risk, external-demand contraction, and policy priorities for trade resilience. The risk model uses a structured scoring formula based on exposure, dependence, replaceability, shock velocity, and evidence confidence. The judgement matrix links each major analytical claim to evidence anchors and potential falsifiers, allowing users to distinguish confirmed evidence, analytical inference, and revisable strategic judgement. The sensitivity-test file provides scenario-based stress checks for oil-price shocks, Thai baht appreciation, rising import concentration, weak external demand, and compound pressure conditions. This dataset should be understood as a report-level reproducibility and audit package rather than a complete archive of all official raw trade datasets. Users seeking full statistical replication should consult the source references listed in the evidence ledger, retrieve the corresponding official data from the original institutions, and compare recalculated results against the reconstructed records and risk-score outputs included in this package.