Thailand Trade Strategic Risk Analysis Reproducibility Package: Evidence Ledger, Risk Scoring Model, Sensitivity Tests, and Trade Indicator Records

This dataset provides a reproducibility package for a strategic analysis of Thailand’s trade structure, trade-risk exposure, and evidence-based policy judgement. The package is designed to support transparent review, structured reanalysis, and auditability of the analytical claims, evidence anchors, risk-scoring logic, sensitivity tests, and figure-level documentation used in the related Thailand trade strategy report. The package contains reconstructed trade indicator records, an evidence ledger, a judgement matrix, a strategic trade-risk scoring table, a Python risk-score verification script, a sensitivity-test matrix, a figure registry, checksum records, and version-history documentation. The analytical focus includes Thailand’s long-term trade expansion, import-export balance shifts, partner-country dependence, China-related import dependence, upstream supply-chain exposure, energy-price risk, exchange-rate risk, external-demand contraction, and policy priorities for trade resilience. The risk model uses a structured scoring formula based on exposure, dependence, replaceability, shock velocity, and evidence confidence. The judgement matrix links each major analytical claim to evidence anchors and potential falsifiers, allowing users to distinguish confirmed evidence, analytical inference, and revisable strategic judgement. The sensitivity-test file provides scenario-based stress checks for oil-price shocks, Thai baht appreciation, rising import concentration, weak external demand, and compound pressure conditions. This dataset should be understood as a report-level reproducibility and audit package rather than a complete archive of all official raw trade datasets. Users seeking full statistical replication should consult the source references listed in the evidence ledger, retrieve the corresponding official data from the original institutions, and compare recalculated results against the reconstructed records and risk-score outputs included in this package.本数据集为泰国贸易结构、贸易风险敞口及循证政策研判的战略分析提供可复现研究包。该研究包旨在支撑相关泰国贸易战略报告中分析主张、证据锚点、风险评分逻辑、敏感性测试及图表级文档的透明评审、结构化复现与可审计性。研究包涵盖重构贸易指标记录、证据台账、研判矩阵、战略贸易风险评分表、Python语言风险评分验证脚本、敏感性测试矩阵、图表注册表、校验和记录与版本历史文档。本次分析的核心聚焦范畴包括泰国长期贸易扩张、进出口平衡变动、伙伴国依赖度、对华进口依赖度、上游供应链敞口、能源价格风险、汇率风险、外部需求收缩，以及贸易韧性相关政策优先级。风险模型采用基于敞口、依赖度、可替代性、冲击速度与证据置信度的结构化评分公式。研判矩阵将每一项核心分析主张与证据锚点及潜在证伪项绑定，可帮助用户区分确证证据、分析推论与可修正的战略研判。敏感性测试文件针对油价冲击、泰铢升值、进口集中度攀升、外部需求疲软与复合压力情境，提供了基于场景的压力测试。本数据集应被界定为报告级可复现与审计研究包，而非所有官方原始贸易数据集的完整归档。若用户需实现完整统计复现，请参阅证据台账中列明的来源参考文献，从原始机构获取对应官方数据，并将重新计算所得结果与本研究包内的重构记录及风险评分输出进行比对校验。