ECIN Replication Package for "U.S. Shale Oil Production and Trend Estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert Model"

Scarcity
and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non-renewable
resources while taking into account technological progression. One mechanism, Moore’s (1965) Law of technological
improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively,
synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative
breakthroughs. These trends relate to
the Hubbert (1956 & 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S.
Lower 48 contiguous states. Price
effects, drilling rigs and the price-to-drilling rig relationship are analyzed.
Results show we are at peak U.S. shale
oil, and could experience comprehensive decline. This implies Catton’s (1982) “Age of
Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.