Dvorski et al. dataset

Due to conventional measures like V̇O2max not fully capturing endurance performance, this study investigated if a 2.4 km Cooper test elicits measurable biomarker changes (decorin, hypoxanthine, BDNF, NT-proBNP) and if these markers improve performance prediction in a heterogeneous sample of runners. Thirty-three participants completed the 2.4 km Cooper test, with venous blood samples collected at baseline and post-test. Regression models were developed to predict 10 km race time and ranking, validated in a subsample of 24 participants who completed a 10 km race two weeks later. Post-test decorin (ρ = –0.44) and hypoxanthine (ρ = –0.37) negatively correlated with Cooper test time. For 10 km race time, a model using the Riegel-predicted time explained performance with R² = 0.927 and MAE = 1.76 min; an extended model including BMI, post-test decorin, and relative hypoxanthine change from baseline improved prediction (R² = 0.956, MAE = 1.34 min). For ranking, estimated V̇O2max alone yielded MAE = 1.92 ranks (ρ = 0.93), while including post-test decorin improved prediction to MAE = 1.46 ranks (ρ = 0.96). The Cooper test elicited measurable responses in decorin, hypoxanthine, and BDNF. Both decorin and hypoxanthine provided corrective value, improving competitive performance prediction alongside conventional measures.