Pre-Registration for \"The Compensation Hypothesis and Immigration Policy Attitudes: More than Preaching to the Choir?\"

The compensation hypothesis argues that, especially in democracies, economic openness requires that the state provide programs to compensate those in society who lose from trade and immigration. Without such compensation programs, political support for economic openness may erode, and democratic governments may become unable to sustain open trade and immigration policies. At the national level, support for the compensation hypothesis comes from the cross-country evidence showing the trade openness is positively correlated with government spending (e.g., Cameron 1978, Rodrik 1998). At the individual-level, support comes from the survey evidence showing that citizens in countries with more compensation programs report as being more favorable to free trade (Hays, Ehrlich, and Peinhardt 2005). But many questions remain. Do compensation programs make citizens more favorable towards immigration, a dimension of economic globalization where it may be harder to shift attitudes in a positive direction? Going further in this issue-area, do compensation programs influence the attitudes of less skilled citizens, or those most vulnerable to economic openness in the advanced industrial democracies? Or do these compensation programs only make more skilled citizens more favorable towards immigration, thus increasing the attitude difference between less and more skilled citizens? Indeed, it is also possible that compensation programs may increase the attitude difference between less and more skilled citizens by making less skilled citizens less favorable towards immigration because of negative associations with welfare and negative associations with racial/ethnic minorities who may also be served by these welfare/compensation programs.补偿假说（compensation hypothesis）认为，尤其是在民主国家中，经济开放要求国家出台相关计划，对那些因贸易和移民而受损的社会群体予以补偿。若缺乏此类补偿计划，民众对经济开放的政治支持可能会逐渐消退，民主政府也将难以维系开放的贸易与移民政策。在国家层面，支持补偿假说的依据来自跨国研究证据，即贸易开放度与政府支出呈正相关关系（例如Cameron 1978、Rodrik 1998）。在个体层面，相关支持则来自调研证据：在拥有更多补偿计划的国家中，民众对自由贸易的支持度更高（Hays、Ehrlich与Peinhardt 2005）。但仍有诸多疑问有待解答：补偿计划是否能让民众对移民持更积极的态度？作为经济全球化的一个维度，移民议题或许更难让民众态度转向积极。进一步深究该议题领域：补偿计划是否会影响低技能公民，或是发达工业民主国家中最易受经济开放冲击群体的态度？抑或是这类补偿计划仅会让高技能公民对移民更持支持态度，从而拉大低技能与高技能公民之间的态度差距？事实上，还有一种可能性：补偿计划可能会拉大低技能与高技能公民的态度差距。由于民众对福利体系存在负面印象，且可能将福利/补偿计划的服务对象与少数族裔群体挂钩，低技能公民可能会因此对移民产生更负面的态度，进而加剧两者间的态度分歧。