Terrorist Group Cooperation and Longevity

Why do some terrorist groups survive considerably longer than others? The literature is just beginning to address this important question in a systematic manner. Additionally, and as with most studies of terrorism, longevity studies have ignored the possibility of interactions between terrorist groups. This article attempts to address these two gaps in the literature: the incomplete understanding of terrorist group survival and the tendency to assume that terrorist groups act independently. In spite of risks associated with cooperation, I argue that it should help involved terrorist groups mitigate mobilization concerns. More importantly, the impact of cooperation is conditioned by attributes of the country in which a terrorist group operates. Using new global data on terrorist groups between 1987 and 2005, I show that cooperation has the strongest effect on longevity in states where groups should have a harder time operating—more capable states and less democratic states. Interestingly, a group's number of relationships is more important than to whom the group is connected.为何部分恐怖组织的存续时长显著长于其他同类组织？目前学界才刚刚开始以系统化的方式探讨这一重要议题。此外，与绝大多数恐怖主义研究一样，现有关于组织存续的研究也忽略了恐怖组织之间存在互动的可能性。本文旨在填补学界的这两处研究空白：一是对恐怖组织存续机制的认知尚不完整，二是现有研究普遍默认恐怖组织的行为具有独立性。尽管合作会带来相关风险，但本文认为，合作能够帮助参与其中的恐怖组织缓解动员层面的顾虑。更为关键的是，合作的影响效果会受恐怖组织所在国的属性所调节。本文使用1987年至2005年间的全球恐怖组织新数据集，研究发现：在恐怖组织更难开展活动的国家——即国家能力更强、民主化程度更低的国家——中，合作对组织存续时长的正向影响最为显著。值得注意的是，恐怖组织的合作关系数量，远比其合作对象的身份更为重要。