Data and Code for: The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements

This repository contains the replication files for “The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements”. The files are stored in the following folders:codesdatainstrument<br>resultsFor detailed information on the data used as well as instructions on how to use the replication codes, see the README pdf file.<br><br>The main results of the project can be summarized as follows:<br>This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the U.S. economy: activity falls, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates - providing evidence for a strong channel operating through supply expectations.<br><br><br>