When Rivers Become Bottlenecks: A Transmission-Based View of Supply Chain Resilience Under Recurrent Climate-Related Transport Constraints — Replication Package

Replication package for a recurrent-event study of supply chain resilience under climate-related transport constraints in the Brazilian Amazon. The package combines official hydrological benchmarks from SGB and ANA, industrial indicators from SUFRAMA, and monthly Manaus foreign-trade data from MDIC/Comex Stat. It contains source extracts, cleaned analysis files, an SH4-to-subsector crosswalk, executable Python code, robustness outputs, and validation logs. The workflow separates hydrological extremity, realized inbound disruption, and downstream industrial consequence. The package reproduces all six downstream transmission models, exact small-cluster Rademacher inference, critical-window robustness, and leave-one-subsector-out sensitivity. The empirical record shows that the 2024 low-water episode was hydrologically more extreme than 2023 while realized critical-window inbound flows were substantially stronger; robust pre-critical retiming was concentrated in five high-confidence SH4 families, and downstream revenue models did not show a stable positive pass-through under exact small-cluster inference.