Sea Change Australia: Climate Report Cards 2025

Sea Change Australia Climate report cards for multiple jurisdictions: WA, NT, QLD, NSW, SA, and TAS/VIC.\nLineage: Monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2024-April 2025 were sourced from the Copernicus Marine Service (https://marine.copernicus.eu/). Forecasts of SST anomalies are produced by the Bureau of Metrology and are updated regularly (http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sst-outlook-map.shtml). Identification of marine heatwaves was done using the Marine Heatwave Tracker (https://www.marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html). Climate projections of SST, bottom temperature, marine heatwave duration, and net primary productivity are from the Ocean Forecasting Australian Model (OFAM) which is a spatially-downscaled ocean model (Oke et al., 2013; Hayashida et al., 2020). Ecosystem biomass projections are from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), with full details found in Blanchard and Novaglio (2024). Further exploration of exploitable fish biomass can be done through their Rshiny tool (https://fishmip.org/tools). \n\nReferences:\nBlanchard, J.L. & Novaglio, C., eds 2024. Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries – Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper, No. 707. Rome, FAO.\nhttps://doi.org/10.4060/cd1379en\n\nHayashida, H., Matear, R. J., Strutton, P. G., & Zhang, X. (2020). Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Nature communications, 11(1), 4352.\n\nOke, P. R., Sakov, P., Cahill, M. L., Dunn, J. R., Fiedler, R., Griffin, D. A., ... & Schiller, A. (2013). Towards a dynamically balanced eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis: BRAN3. Ocean Modelling, 67, 52-70.\n\n\n\n

澳大利亚《海洋变迁》气候报告卡覆盖多个行政区：西澳大利亚州（WA）、北领地（NT）、昆士兰州（QLD）、新南威尔士州（NSW）、南澳大利亚州（SA）以及塔斯马尼亚州/维多利亚州（TAS/VIC）。

数据溯源：2024年5月至2025年4月的逐月海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST）距平数据来源于哥白尼海洋环境服务中心（Copernicus Marine Service，https://marine.copernicus.eu/）。海表温度距平预测由澳大利亚气象局制作并定期更新，相关预测页面可参见http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sst-outlook-map.shtml。海洋热浪的识别工作借助海洋热浪追踪工具（Marine Heatwave Tracker，https://www.marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html）完成。海表温度、底层水温、海洋热浪持续时长以及净初级生产力的气候预测数据，来源于空间降尺度海洋模型——澳大利亚海洋预报模型（Ocean Forecasting Australian Model, OFAM）（Oke等，2013；Hayashida等，2020）。生态系统生物量预测数据来自渔业与海洋生态系统模型比对项目（Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, FishMIP），详细研究细节可参见Blanchard与Novaglio（2024）的成果。用户可通过该项目的R Shiny工具（https://fishmip.org/tools）进一步探索可开发鱼类生物量。

参考文献：
Blanchard, J.L. 与 Novaglio, C. 主编，2024。《气候变化对海洋生态系统与渔业的风险——基于渔业与海洋生态系统模型比对项目的2100年预测》。联合国粮食及农业组织渔业与水产技术报告，第707号。罗马：联合国粮食及农业组织。https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1379en

Hayashida, H., Matear, R. J., Strutton, P. G. 与 Zhang, X.（2020）。高分辨率海洋环流模型下的海洋热浪预估变化研究。《自然-通讯》，11(1)，4352。

Oke, P. R., Sakov, P., Cahill, M. L., Dunn, J. R., Fiedler, R., Griffin, D. A. 等及 Schiller, A.（2013）。构建动力平衡的涡旋解析海洋再分析数据集：BRAN3。《海洋建模》，67卷，52-70页。