DID FDI REALLY CAUSE CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH? A META-ANALYSIS

This study performs a meta-analysis of research that estimates the relationship between FDI and Chinese economic growth. Our sample includes 37 studies and a total of 280 estimates. We include both English- and Chinese-language studies. Our initial “raw” finding is that FDI has had a substantial, positive impact on Chinese economic growth. Furthermore, our results suggest that the effect is not inflated by endogeneity, nor impacted by publication bias. However, the positive effect is found to be smaller for more recent and better designed studies. When we adjust for preferred study and sample characteristics, we find that the estimated economic effect of FDI on Chinese economic growth is much smaller than indicated by the overall literature, and statistically insignificant. This suggests that the cause(s) of the Chinese “economic miracle” likely lie elsewhere.