Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients

PurposeBreast cancer risk prediction models are used to plan clinical trials and counsel women; however, relationships of predicted risks of breast cancer incidence and prognosis after breast cancer diagnosis are unknown.MethodsUsing largely pre-diagnostic information from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) for 37,939 invasive breast cancers (1996–2007), we estimated 5-year breast cancer risk (ResultsOf 6,021 deaths, 2,993 (49.7%) were ascribed to breast cancer. In unadjusted case-only analyses, predicted breast cancer risk ≥1.67% versus ConclusionsAmong cases assessed with three models, higher predicted risk of developing breast cancer was not associated with greater risk of breast cancer death; thus, these models would have limited utility in planning studies to evaluate breast cancer mortality reduction strategies. Further, when offering women counseling, it may be useful to note that high predicted risk of developing breast cancer does not imply that if cancer develops it will behave aggressively.