Dataset for Spatial and Interpretive Mapping of the Sahel Transnational Conflict Economies

The central hypothesis of this study is that the Sahel conflict, spanning over a decade, is sustained by transnational conflict economies whose spatial dynamics remain unmapped and unclearly interpreted, hindering precise interventions. We argue that mapping conflict economies using an integrated Actor–Sector–Activity–Event (ASAE) lens can illuminate actionable intervention points that conventional, broad-based conflict avoidance strategies often overlook.

We gathered data using document reviews, expert interviews and specialised databases (e.g., Illicit Arms Flow Database, Armed Conflict and Event Database). Data cover actors in cross-border crimes and conflicts, sectors (financial, agricultural, humanitarian, political governance), activities (resource exploitation, mercenary movements, drug–arms–human trafficking) and conflict events (battles, riots, protests). We cover five key Sahelian countries - Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad and Sudan - each serving as a pivotal node in the region's transnational conflict economies.

Data integration via geospatial and network analyses reveals three distinct conflict economy blocks where violence concentrates, based on the clustering and interaction of conflict events, illicit activities, and key actors and sectors that serve as points of infiltration.

Block 1: Liptako-Gourma, dominated by gold smuggling, livestock rustling and JNIM influence.

Block 2: Lake Chad borderlands, with aid diversion, kidnapping, illegal taxation by ISWAP and Boko Haram.

Block 3: Darfur–Kordofan–Nile Valley, shaped by mineral and arms flows under Rapid Support Forces’ control.

Together, these blocks account for most conflict hotspots since 2023 and are linked by cross-border trafficking routes, shifting actor alliances and spillover displacement crises, forming a structural backbone of the Sahel conflict economies where violence, governance voids and economic control reinforce regional instability.

This study – the first to adopt an ASAE-informed mapping - reveals a path to targeted, block-specific interventions, including halting specific illicit commodity flows (e.g., gold in Liptako-Gourma, minerals in Darfur corridor, aid diversion channels in Lake Chad), blocking funding and tax extraction networks, and closing cross-border smuggling routes through joint border patrols, forensic finance tracing, and coordinated sanctions on key actors.

Our data should be interpreted as an ASAE-structured snapshot of transnational conflict economies in the Sahel for 2023–2025, best used to identify and compare actors, sectors, activities, and events within and across the three blocks rather than to make fine-grained temporal claims. Users are encouraged to employ our data for spatial, network and risk mapping, ideally alongside complementary qualitative or longitudinal sources to track how conflict economies evolve over time.