State of Wildfires 2023-24 - ConFire data

This contains driving and output data used by ConFire in the State of Wildfire’s 2023/24 report. All NetCDF files are on regular, 0.5-degree grids on a monthly timestep over the three regions used and defined in the report.

Driving Data

The “Driving_data” directory contains data used to run the ConFire model and produce analyses. This directory is divided into three focal regions, with NW_Amazon corresponding to the report's “Western Amazonia”. Each region contains the following files:

raw_burnt_area.nc: The original 0.25-degree burnt area dataset before being regridded for use in ConFire.

nrt: Near Real Time (NRT) driving data used for driver identification.

isimip3a: ISIMIP3a data used for attribution.

isimip3b: ISIMIP3b GCM bias-corrected data used for future projections.

NRT

Within the nrt directory, data is organized by periods, with the numbers corresponding to the year range. The report utilizes the period_2013_2023 directory, which contains the NetCDF files in the table below.

Filename ending with the following show:

12Annual – 12 month running mean

12monthMax – 12 month running maximum

Deficity – current month over 12 month running mean

Quarter – 3 month running mean

Not all were used in the final analysis. For full data info, see Table 3 of the report https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-218:

NetCDF File
Variable
Used/Not Used
Source
Notes

burnt_area.nc
Burnt Area
As training data

cropland.nc
Cropland
Used
HYDE
Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011

d2m.nc
2m Dewpoint Temperature
Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

DeadFuelFoilage-cvh_C.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

DeadFuelFoilage-cvl_C.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

DeadFuelFoilage.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

DeadFuelWood-cvh_C.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

DeadFuelWood-cvl_C.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

DeadFuelWood.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Foilage-12Annual.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Foilage-12monthMax.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Foilage-Deficity.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Foilage.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Moisture
Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Foilage-Quater.nc
Dead Foliage Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Wood-12Annual.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Wood-12monthMax.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Wood-Deficity.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Moisture
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Dead-Wood.nc
Dead Wood Fuel Moisture
Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Live-12Annual.nc
Live Fuel Moisture Content
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Live-12monthMax.nc
Live Fuel Moisture Content
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Live-Deficity.nc
Live Fuel Moisture Content
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Live.nc
Live Fuel Moisture Content
Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

Fuel-Moisture-Live-Quater.nc
Live Fuel Moisture Content
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

grazing_land.nc
Grazing Land
Not Used

lightn.nc
Lightning
Used
LIS/OTD
Cecil et al., 2014

LiveFuelFoilage-cvh_C.nc
Live Leaf Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

LiveFuelFoilage-cvl_C.nc
Live Leaf Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

LiveFuelFoilage.nc
Live Leaf Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

LiveFuelWood-cvh_C.nc
Live Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

LiveFuelWood-cvl_C.nc
Live Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

LiveFuelWood.nc
Live Wood Fuel Load
Not Used
Fuel Model
McNorton et al. 2024a

pasture.nc
Pasture
Used
HYDE
Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011

population_density.nc
Population Density
Used

rangeland.nc
Rangeland
Not Used

rural_population.nc
Rural Population
Used
HYDE
Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011

snowCover.nc
Snow Cover
Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

t2m.nc
2m Temperature
Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

total_irrigated.nc
Irrigated Area
Not Used

tp-12Annual.nc
Precipitation
Not Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

tp-12monthMax.nc
Precipitation
Not Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

tp-Deficity.nc
Precipitation
Not Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

tp.nc
Precipitation
Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

tp-Quater.nc
Precipitation
Not Used
ERA5-Land
Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021

urban_population.nc
Urban Population
Used
HYDE
Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011

VOD-12Annual.nc
Mean & Max VOD
Used
Satellite (SMOS)
Wigneron et al 2021

VOD-12monthMax.nc
Mean & Max VOD
Used
Satellite (SMOS)
Wigneron et al 2021

VOD-Deficity.nc
Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD)
Not Used
Satellite (SMOS)
Wigneron et al 2021

VOD.nc
Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD)
Used
Satellite (SMOS)
Wigneron et al 2021

VOD-Quater.nc
Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD)
Not Used
Satellite (SMOS)
Wigneron et al 2021

ISIMIP3a

The isimip3a directory follows the structure: <>/<>/period_yyyy_yyyy/.

<>: Can be either:

obsclim: Reanalysis targeting observed climate.

counterclim: Detrended obsclim approximating climate without climate change.

<>: Currently contains only GSWP3-W5E5, with more sources to follow in subsequent years.

yyyy_yyyy: Corresponds to the year range.

For attribution experiments in the report, the following directories are used:

Factual: obsclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/

Counterfactual: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/

Early Industrial: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_1901_1920/

Additional details on setting the temporal range for the report can be found here.

ISIMIP3b

The isimip3b directory structure is similar to ISIMIP3a: <>/<>/period_yyyy_yyyy/.

<> includes:

historical: Historical GCM output.

ssp126

ssp370

ssp585

<>: Refers to the General Circulation Model used.

yyyy_yyyy: Corresponds to the year range.

Both ISIMIP3a and ISIMIP3b contain the same NetCDF files, as follows:

netcdf file
variable
used/not used
source
Notes

consec_dry_mean.nc
Max. consecutive dry days
used

ISIMIP3a/3b

Based on precipitation

crop_jules-es.nc
Cropland
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Interpolated from annual to monthly

debiased_nonetree_cover_jules-es.nc
Total vegetation cover
not used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP VCF using ibicus
Non-tree vegetated cover simulated by JULES and bias-corrected

debiased_tree_cover_jules-es.nc
Tree Cover
not used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP VCF using ibicus
Annual mean tree cover bias-corrected to VCF

dry_days.nc
No. dry days
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Fractional number of days with rainfall < 0.1mm/m

filled_debiased_nonetree_cover_jules-es.nc
Total vegetation cover
used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP VCF using ibicus
Filled and bias-corrected non-tree vegetated cover

filled_debiased_tree_cover_jules-es.nc
Tree Cover
used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP VCF using ibicus
Filled and bias-corrected tree cover

filled_debiased_vegCover_jules-es.nc
Total vegetation cover
used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP VCF using ibicus
Filled and bias-corrected vegetation cover

lightning.nc
Lightning
used
ISIMIP3a
Climatology

nonetree_cover_jules-es.nc
Total vegetation cover
not used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP 
Non-tree vegetated cover simulated by JULES

pasture_jules-es.nc
Pasture
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Interpolated from annual to monthly

pr_mean.nc
Precipitation
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Monthly mean precipitation

tas_max.nc
Maximum monthly temperature
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Maximum of maximum daily temperature within the month

tas_mean.nc
Mean monthly temperature
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Daily mean temperature

tree_cover_jules-es.nc
Tree Cover
not used
JULES-ES-ISIMIP 
Annual mean tree cover bias-corrected to VCF

urban_jules-es.nc
Urban fraction
used
JULES-ES
Urban area fraction

vpd_max.nc
Maximum monthly VPD
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Maximum of daily VPD values

vpd_mean.nc
Mean monthly VPD
used
ISIMIP3a/3b
Mean of daily VPD values

nontree_cover_VCF-obs.nc
Total vegetation cover
not used
VCF
Non-tree vegetated cover observed

nontree_raw_VCF-obs.nc
Total vegetation cover
not used
 VCF
Raw non-tree vegetated cover observed

nonveg_cover_VCF-obs.nc
Non-vegetated cover
not used
 VCF
Observed non-vegetated cover

nonveg_raw_VCF-obs.nc
Non-vegetated cover
not used
 VCF
Raw observed non-vegetated cover

tree_cover_VCF-obs.nc
Tree Cover
not used
 VCF
Observed tree cover

tree_raw_VCF-obs.nc
Tree Cover
not used
 VCF
Raw observed tree cover

ISIMIP3a/3b is detailed in Frieler et al. (2024) and raw data can be obtained from https://data.ISIMIP.org

While not used as driving data, VCF is used to proceed bias corrected driving data. VCF is taken from MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields collection 6.1 remote sensed data for <60॰N DiMiceli et al. (2022) and collection 6 for <60॰N DiMiceli et al. (2015). JULES-ES (Mathison et al. 2023) was driven  using the corresponding ISIMIP datasets.

Outputs

Outputs contain the ConFire outputs when driven with the provided datasets. The directories are named according to the regions, and for each region, there are four sets of outputs:

isimip-evaluation1

isimip-final.tar

nrt-evaluation1

nrt-final

Each of these directories contains the following files necessary for rerunning the model without redoing the optimization. While you are unlikely to need to look at these files, they are useful for setting up your own model experiments (see the ConFire configuration settings):

scalers-_*.csv

trace-_*.nc

variables_info-_*.txt

Additionally, there are two other directories:

figs: Contains automatically generated figures and some of their outputs.

sample: Contains model outputs.

Within the sample directory, there is a subdirectory indicating the model run name, which contains a series of experiments. These experiments differ for each run (see below), and each experiment contains some or all of the following directories:

Evaluate: Contains the burnt area from the full model including stochastic parameters. Often used for evaluation (see report supplement for more information).

Control: Contains burnt area driven purely by driving datasets with stochasticity. Used as the control in most of the analysis.

Standard_X: A series of directories with burnt areas from individual controls. This describes the burnt area in the presence of that control in otherwise ideal burning conditions. The numbers are:

0: Fuel load for all runs

1: Fuel moisture for all runs

2: Fire weather for NRT and ignitions for ISIMIP3a

3: Ignitions for ISIMIP3a and suppression for ISIMIP3a

4: Suppression for NRT

5: Snow for NRT

Within each of these directories is a series of ensemble members sample-predX.nc. Within the same optimization (i.e., the same model run, so across all experiments), samples are paired, meaning the sample-predX.nc corresponds to the sample in another experiment.

Experiments

isimip-evaluation1 & nrt-evaluation1

The only experiment for evaluation is called baseline, which has an 'Evaluate' and 'Control' run and is used to evaluate the model. Automatically generated evaluation figures can be found in the figs/ directory.

nrt-final

This also contains only one run, baseline, but includes runs for each of the controls.

isimip-final

This has more runs:

factual: Uses the ISIMIP3a obsclim driving dataset (see driving dataset above).

counterfactual: Uses the ISIMIP3a counterclim dataset.

early_industrial: Uses the early period ISIMIP3a counterclim dataset.

historical/<>/, ssp126/<>/, ssp370/<>/, ssp585/<>/: Uses the ISIMIP3b datasets outlined above, where <> is one of each of the five GCMs used in ISIMIP3b.

Additional Analysis

The analysis in the report also utilizes 95th and 90th percentile burnt area totals. These aren't as neatly organized as the NetCDF files yet, but we’re getting there. They can be found in:

figs/ _13-frac_points_0.5-<>-control_TS/<>-control_TS/pc-%%/ points-<>.csv