Mapping the Global Potential for Marine Aquaculture

Marine aquaculture presents an opportunity for increasing seafood production in the face of both growing demand for marine protein and limited scope for expanding harvest of wild fisheries. Unknown, however, is the global capacity for increased aquaculture production from the ocean or the relative productivity potential across countries. Here, we use an innovative approach to calculate and map potential marine aquaculture production, drawing from physiology, allometry, and growth theory. Even after applying substantial constraints based on existing ocean uses, we find vast areas in nearly every coastal country that are suitable for aquaculture. Development potential far exceeds the space required to meet foreseeable seafood demand; indeed, current total landings of all wild capture fisheries could be produced using less than 0.015% of global ocean area. This analysis demonstrates that suitable space is unlikely to limit marine aquaculture development, and that considerable flexibility exists to site farms in a way that aligns with economic, environmental, and social objectives. In an era shaped by a growing population and environmental uncertainty, sustainable marine aquaculture has widespread potential to enhance global food supplies.面对海洋蛋白需求持续攀升、野生渔业捕捞扩张空间受限的双重挑战，海水养殖（marine aquaculture）为提升海产品总产量提供了重要契机。然而，全球海洋水产养殖的潜在增产总量，以及各国间相对的产能潜力，此前尚未明确。本研究依托生理学、异速生长（allometry）理论与生长理论，采用创新方法测算并绘制全球海洋水产养殖的潜在产能分布图。即便基于现有海洋开发用途设置了严格的约束条件，我们仍发现几乎所有沿海国家都拥有大面积适宜开展水产养殖的海域。水产养殖的开发潜力远超满足未来可预见海产品需求所需的海域规模；事实上，仅需占用全球海洋面积不足0.015%的海域，即可生产出当前全球所有野生捕捞渔业（wild capture fisheries）的总捕捞量。本分析表明，适宜养殖的海域规模不太可能成为海水养殖发展的制约因素，且养殖场地选址具备极大灵活性，可兼顾经济、环境与社会多重目标。在人口持续增长、环境不确定性加剧的时代，可持续海水养殖对提升全球粮食供应具备广阔的应用潜力。