From Global Economic Crisis to Armed Crisis: Changing Regional Inequalities in Ukraine

Despite the new geopolitical situation caused by the revolution at Maidan in February 2014, little is known about the real economics of Ukraine and its internal spatial disparities. In the survey of regional disparities, data on incomes, employment and unemployment were involved and completed by those on migration and age structure of the population. The spectrum of available data at rayon level is not particularly broad, but this is counterbalanced by the ca. five hundred territorial units that provide a minute picture of the inequalities. According to the classic view, the spatial pattern of economic development is opposite to the Central European west to east slope. In Ukraine, Eastern regions are not more developed as a whole but they accommodate more developed large urban centres. Spatial differences grew most rapidly during the period of economic decline (1990–2000). However, these disparities were mitigated during the two years following the global financial crisis as the latter mainly affected the large urban centres of the economy. Conversely, the Donets Basin as a whole was highly exposed to the effects of these crises owing to its outdated industrial structure (coal mining, iron and steel industry). This led to a rearrangement in the ranking of the east Ukrainian regions based on GDP per capita: Dnipropetrovs’k overtook Donets’k, and the Dnieper Region (including Zaporizhzhia) has a higher output per capita than Donbas. A significant part of the productive capacities and incomes are found in the Donbas, an area hit hard by the fighting; their loss would further deteriorate the state of the country’s economy. The fighting in the Donbas that did by far the greatest harm to the economy among the post-Soviet conflicts. It happened in a period when Ukraine, after the transformation crisis, had been on the path of growth for more than one decade. Concerning population number, area and economic weight, the Donbas exceeds Transnistria or Karabakh by an order of magnitude.尽管2014年2月迈丹（Maidan）革命引发了新的地缘政治格局，但学界对乌克兰的真实经济状况及其国内空间失衡状况仍知之甚少。在区域失衡研究中，本数据集涵盖了收入、就业与失业数据，并补充了人口迁移与人口年龄结构相关信息。区（rayon）级可用数据集的覆盖范围并不算广泛，但约500个行政单元恰好弥补了这一不足，能够精准呈现区域不平等的细节。经典观点认为，欧洲中部的经济发展空间格局呈西高东低的梯度，而乌克兰的情况与此截然相反。乌克兰东部地区整体发展水平并不更高，但却拥有若干发展水平较高的大型城市中心。空间发展差距在1990至2000年的经济衰退期扩张速度最快。但在全球金融危机后的两年间，这类差距有所收窄——因金融危机主要冲击了经济体中的大型城市中心。与之相反，顿涅茨克盆地（Donets Basin）地区因产业结构陈旧（以煤炭开采、钢铁工业为主），整体受此次危机的冲击极为严重。这导致乌克兰东部地区的人均GDP排名发生变动：第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克（Dnipropetrovs’k）超越了顿涅茨克（Donets’k），而第聂伯地区（含扎波罗热（Zaporizhzhia））的人均产出高于顿巴斯（Donbas）。顿巴斯集中了乌克兰大量的生产能力与国民收入，而该区域正遭受战事重创，其经济受损将进一步恶化国家整体经济形势。在所有后苏联时期的地区冲突中，顿巴斯战事对乌克兰经济造成的破坏迄今最为严重。此次战事爆发于乌克兰经历转型危机后、连续十余年保持经济增长的阶段。从人口规模、区域面积与经济体量来看，顿巴斯的规模均远超德涅斯特河沿岸地区（Transnistria）与纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫（Karabakh）一个数量级。