Do the predicted suitability scores from species distribution models correlate with species performance on-ground?

Species distribution models are a very popular statistical tool for inferring potential distribution range of species across space and time and are thought to be a good predictor for habitat suitability. Some studies have suggested that if these models are reliable, predicted habitat suitability (PHS) should relate to species traits visualization, growth potential, body size, abundance. We validated this hypothesis by estimating association between the PHS and species abundance for 17 avian species endemic to the Western Ghats - Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot. Additionally, we compared the PHS of sites where species were detected in both seasons (wet and dry) against sites where they were detected in the dry season alone. As a proxy for abundance, we estimated single-season occupancy estimates (ψ) using detection/non-detection data from multiple visits to the survey sites. We report significant and positive PHS-ψ correlation, though the strength of this association varied across species...物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models）是一类应用广泛的统计工具，可用于推断物种在时空尺度上的潜在分布范围，被认为是生境适宜性的优质预测因子。已有研究表明，若此类模型具备可靠性，预测生境适宜性（predicted habitat suitability, PHS）应与物种性状、生长潜力、体型及种群丰度存在关联。本研究针对西高止山脉-斯里兰卡生物多样性热点区域内的17种特有鸟类，通过分析PHS与种群丰度之间的关联，验证了上述假说。此外，本研究还对比了两类样点的PHS：一类是物种在湿季与干季均被监测到的样点，另一类是仅在干季被监测到的样点。本研究以多次走访监测样点所获得的检测/未检测数据为基础，估算得到单季占用率（ψ）作为种群丰度的替代指标。研究结果显示，PHS与ψ间存在显著的正相关关系，尽管该关联的强度在不同物种间存在差异……