National Labour Force Projections 2024-base

Reference period This release contains 2024-base projections of the labour force usually living in New Zealand. These supersede the 2020-base projections released in June 2021. The new projections have the estimated resident population in the labour force at 30 June 2024 as a base, and cover the period 2024–78 at one-year intervals. The labour force projections are derived from the latest National population projections: 2024(base)–2078 (released 04 June 2025) by multiplying the projected population by the assumed labour force participation rates (LFPRs), by single year of age and sex. Detailed projection results, including projections for individual years and by single-year of age and sex, are available in ADE. Method The 'cohort component' method has been used to derive the labour force projections. Using this method, population projections are first derived as described in National population projections: 2024(base)–2078. The assumed LFPRs are then applied to the population projections, by age-sex, to give labour force projections. The assumed average usual hours worked per week are then applied to the labour force projections, by age-sex, to give projections of total hours worked (THW). People in the labour force who are not working are assumed to be available for work to the same extent as those who are working. THW projections are then divided by the labour force projections to give projections of average hours worked. Main changes in assumptions since the previous 2020-base projections Deriving the projections involved a review of all projection assumptions. The following are the main changes from the previous 2020-base projections. Population projections For the main changes in the base population, fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions see National population projections 2024(base)–2078. Labour force participation rates (LFPRs) An increase in female LFPRs so that the median projection average working life by age 80 years is 46.1 years in 2078, compared with 43.5 years in the 2020-base projections. Average hours worked Increases in the female AHW and decreases in the male AHW, especially at ages 30 to 59 years, with a median female AHW of 35.6 hours per week in 2078, compared with 33.5 hours per week in the 2020-base projections. The median male AHW is 38.8 hours per week in 2078, compared with 40.9 hours per week in the 2020-base projections. en-NZ