IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROELECTRIC POWER DURATION CURVES OF SMALL RURAL CATCHMENTS IN THE AMAZON

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to analyze the influence of climate change on the flow duration curves of five small rural catchments in the Amazon, as well as the hydroelectric power duration curves of micro hydroelectric power plants (MHPs) which can be implemented in the respective hydroelectric sites. The scenarios used were RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, defined during the 5th IPCC Report; these are the main optimistic and realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the future. They projected on the flow duration curves of the small catchments under study and, consequently, on the hydroelectric power duration curves. Future precipitation was obtained via the PROJETA platform. For the simulation of flow duration curves, a rainfall-runoff model was used. The determination of the power duration curves was considered with the observed and simulated flow duration curves and with design parameters available in the literature. Based on the simulations, the reduction of high duration flows (minimum flows) was verified for the future scenarios studied, mainly for RCP 8.5, reflecting directly in the reduction of the hydro energetic potential of the analyzed rural catchments.