Expert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida

We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model, which was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates from herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, we generated a large sample of matrix models to infer how the tegu population might respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. Expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable for conducting an initial assessment of the effort needed to control the invader. The value of information can be used to focus research in a way that not only helps increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.本研究以佛罗里达州南部的泰加巨蜥（Salvator merianae）为案例对象，阐明了专家征询（expert elicitation）、不确定性的明确识别以及信息价值在指导入侵物种管理与研究工作中的应用效用。我们构建了出生后脉冲矩阵模型，并通过三点流程从爬行动物学专家处征集泰加巨蜥种群统计率的估算值，以此完成模型参数化。我们为每个参数及每位专家拟合了统计分布，随后从中抽取并合并大量重复样本，以生成每个种群统计参数的分布。借助这些参数分布，我们生成了海量矩阵模型样本，以此推断泰加巨蜥种群对各类防控措施的响应趋势。我们运用帕累托效率（Pareto efficiency）与随机占优（stochastic dominance）的分析框架，得出结论：以较高防控强度针对高龄年龄组开展措施，最有可能实现泰加巨蜥种群丰度与防控成本的双重最小化。结合专家意见与对不确定性的明确考量，可为入侵物种防控所需投入的初步评估提供极具价值的参考依据。信息价值理论可用于精准聚焦研究方向，既能有效提升防控效能，又可同步降低防控成本。