Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of wildfires on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Wildfires have become a global crisis, with alpine regions facing particularly severe challenges. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), the world's highest plateau, has witnessed a notable increase in both the frequency and extent of wildfires over the past two decades, driven by the combined effects of human activities and climate change. However, the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of wildfires on the QTP remain unclear, hindering effective wildfire management and ecological conservation. In this study, we analyzed wildfire dynamics on the QTP over the past 20 years (2001−2020) using standard deviation ellipse (SDE), kernel density estimation (KDE) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Our results revealed that both the frequency and burned area of wildfires on the QTP showed an upward trend. Wildfires were primarily concentrated in the eastern and southern regions of the QTP. The average elevation of burned area has increased, and the wildfire centre has shifted northwest. While climate change remains the dominant driver of wildfires on the QTP, human activities also play a critical role in certain regions. By identifying high-risk periods, regions and key drivers of wildfires, this study offers valuable insights for issuing early warnings, formulating fire management strategies and protecting the fragile plateau ecosystem.