Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, raw scalar time series part 2, 2008-3007

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the raw scalar time series files from the year 2008 until 3007 for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulation) ids 000 until 499 of the simulations that successfully finished (some simulations did not converge).

格陵兰冰原（Greenland Ice Sheet）的冰量约相当于7.2米的海平面当量。近几十年来，大气与海洋温度上升导致其冰量损失速率加快，1991年至2015年间，格陵兰冰原平均每年使全球平均海平面上升约0.5毫米。当前格陵兰的冰缘退缩主要由出口冰川（outlet glaciers）驱动——这类巨型冰流以狭窄峡湾为末端，负责排泄冰盖内部的冰体。近期冰厚测量技术的进步，使得模型能够复现出口冰川复杂的流动模式，这是实现可信海平面预测的关键一步。本研究将可解析出口冰川的冰盖模型与全面的不确定性量化方法相结合，以估算不同气候强迫（climate forcings）下，未来千年格陵兰冰原对海平面的贡献。研究发现，到2100年，格陵兰冰原或将使海平面上升5至33厘米；到2200年，这一数值将达到11至155厘米，其中出口冰川的冰量排泄贡献了总冰量损失的6%至45%。分析表明，冰量损失预测的不确定性主要来源于气候情景与地表过程的不确定性，其次是冰动力学（ice dynamics）的不确定性，而海洋条件的不确定性影响较小，在长期尺度上尤为如此。研究预测，若不大幅减少温室气体排放，格陵兰冰原极有可能在千年内完全消融。本数据集汇编包含了题为《格陵兰冰原未来千年对海平面的贡献》的论文所使用的平行冰盖模型（Parallel Ice Sheet Model, PISM）模拟结果。该数据集提供了2008年至3007年的原始标量时间序列文件，覆盖典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs）2.6、4.5和8.5情景，以及大集合模拟（Large Ensemble Simulation, LES）编号000至499的成功完成模拟（部分模拟未收敛）。