Study on Landslide Susceptibility along the Chengdu–Lhasa Section of China's G318 National Highway under Future Precipitation Scenarios dataset

The Chengdu–Lhasa section of China’s G318 National Highway is characterized by steep topography, active tectonics, and significant spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. These geological and climatic challenges collectively reduce slope stability, leading to frequent landslide occurrences. To safeguard human lives and property and to mitigate disaster risks, this study investigates the spatial distribution and projected changes of landslide susceptibility along this corridor. The MaxEnt model, optimized using the ENMeval, was applied to analyze landslide susceptibility. Projected precipitation data from CMIP6 was incorporated to assess both the spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility and its potential changes under different scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) very high- and high- landslide susceptibility zones are mainly concentrated in Chengdu City, Ya’an City, and Meishan City; 2) precipitation and elevation are the primary controlling factors, with elevation playing a decisive role; within the 800–1600 m elevation range, very high- and high- susceptibility zones are most densely distributed, peaking during May and July; 3) Under projected precipitation scenarios, landslide susceptibility shows a rise-and-fall pattern, increasing from the current period to the 2060-2080 year, followed by a decline from the 2080-2100 year, while the centroid locations of very high- and high-susceptibility zones remains largely stable. This study incorporated projected precipitation into the optimized susceptibility modeling framework, enhancing the reliability of landslide susceptibility predictions. The results provide scientific support for climate-adaptive disaster management and the sustainable operation of the Sichuan–Tibet transportation corridor.

中国G318国道成都至拉萨段以地形陡峭、构造活动活跃及降水时空变异性显著为主要特征。此类地质与气候挑战共同降低了边坡稳定性，导致滑坡灾害频发。为保障人民生命财产安全、减轻灾害风险，本研究对该交通廊道沿线的滑坡敏感性空间分布及未来变化趋势展开了探究。本研究采用经ENMeval优化的MaxEnt模型开展滑坡敏感性分析，并引入CMIP6预估降水数据，以评估不同情景下滑坡敏感性的空间分布及其潜在变化。研究结果表明：1）极高与高滑坡敏感性区主要集中于成都市、雅安市与眉山市；2）降水与高程为主要控制因子，其中高程起决定性作用；在800~1600米高程区间内，极高与高敏感性区分布最为密集，滑坡敏感性峰值出现在5月与7月；3）在预估降水情景下，滑坡敏感性呈现先升后降的变化模式：从当前时期至2060-2080年时段敏感性逐步升高，2080-2100年时段则有所下降，且极高、高敏感性区的质心位置基本保持稳定。本研究将预估降水数据纳入优化后的敏感性建模框架，提升了滑坡敏感性预测结果的可靠性。研究结果可为川藏交通廊道的气候适应性灾害管理与可持续运营提供科学支撑。