RECURRNG COSUMPTION INDUCED SHOCKS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS ON EFFECT OF KUMBH MELA ON SECONDARY MARKET

This study explores the impact of the Kumbh Mela—a large-scale cyclical cultural-religious congregation in India—on the secondary stock market through the lens of consumption-induced shocks. Leveraging a blend of macroeconomic theory, behavioral finance, and advanced econometric modeling, we examine how heightened consumption behaviors, driven by ritual and temporary migration, create liquidity constraints, alter portfolio allocations, and trigger sectoral price rebalancing. Using structural break analysis, ARIMA-GARCH models, event studies, and utility-based simulations, we uncover recurring patterns of market volatility and temporary price distortions aligned with the hex-temporal occurrence of the Kumbh Mela. Our findings suggest that large consumption events can act as non-traditional financial shocks that induce volatility, liquidity depletion, and systemic risk propagation across asset classes. These insights contribute to a growing discourse on how social events influence financial market dynamics.