A mathmatical model of population dynamics to explain changes in biodiversity of microorganisms in ice covered marine environments

Physical, geographic and biological data were linked into a mathmatical model of population dynamics to integrate and explain the changes in biodiversity of phytoplankton, bacteria and cyanobacteria in ice covered marine ecosystems at three coastal Antarctic sites (Terra Nova Bay, Granite Harbour and Cape Evans) over several seasons. Data for the model was collected from each site in different seasons. In this way, the model changes with latitude in the relative contributions from each community as well as changes in species composition and distribution. Over the course of study, repeat samplings at each site in different years will facilitate a build of a series of models that describe the biodiversity and health of microbial populations at each site, to enable a better understanding of their ecosystem function and the pressures they may be under. Satellite imagery of ice distributions, thickness and snow cover, and weather patterns were linked with latitudinal variations in biological data, and models of population structure and dynamics were developed. The data that was incorporated into the model included total biomass, chlorophyll content, rates of productivity, species distributions and abundances of microbial organisms within sea ice and in the water beneath. Where possible, variations in local conditions such as snow cover, ice thickness, surface and under ice irradiance were included.