Data from: Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk

Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.除助力识别通常与灭绝风险相关联的物种性状外，化石记录还可直接用于评估现生物种的灭绝风险。现存地理分布或分布占有度是预测近期与过往灭绝风险的强预测因子，但针对分布占有度变化所发挥的作用，相关研究仍较为匮乏。本研究基于新生代（Cenozoic）海洋物种的化石记录展开分析，结果表明，分布占有度及其时间变化轨迹均为灭绝风险的重要决定因素。本研究以灭绝物种为基础，构建了一个描述分布占有度及其时间变化对灭绝风险的叠加与交互效应的模型，并利用该模型对现生物种的灭绝风险进行预测。预测结果显示，海洋物种的平均灭绝风险处于中等水平。然而，部分物种似乎正处于长期衰退状态，且可能面临潜在灭绝风险——这一因素在当前的风险评估中尚未被纳入考量。