ASSESSING VULNERABILITY OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LANDBIRDS TO CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE

ABSTRACT:Biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate due to a myriad of factors, especially changes in climate and land use that are only expected to intensify in the coming decades. However, few studies have assessed species’ potential exposure to projected climate and land use change over large spatial extents. Here, we used publicly available eBird-derived data products on the relative abundances of 218 landbird species across the eastern US to quantify species- and community-level exposure to projected climate and land use changes through the end of the century. We furthermore identified the ecological characteristics associated with the most vulnerable species, groups, and locations across the region. We found that the species and areas which are most exposed to these threats were broadly consistent under different shared socioeconomic and representative concentration (SSP-RCP) pathways but that mean climate exposure was 57% higher under the more pessimistic emissions scenario. Boreal species and species typically associated with forest and grassland habitats have the highest projected exposure to climate change, whereas species associated with non-forested habitats will face higher exposure to changes in land use. Notably, across the board species will tend to experience high exposure to either climate or land use change, but rarely both. Despite differences in the species potentially affected by these threats, spatial patterns of community-wide exposure to climate and land use change were strongly correlated (R2=0.61-0.70), underscoring the need to target conservation intervention towards key areas across the eastern US where avian communities may be the most vulnerable.GITHUB: Will be made available upon publication.