Data from: Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

AbstractThe responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely., Usage notesDetectionsDetections by location, time, and body massDryad.csv摘要 低地热带群落对气候变化的响应将对全球生物多样性产生关键影响，但目前人们对其认知仍十分有限。若这些生态系统中的物种无法耐受气候变暖，当前全球物种最为丰富的群落可能会出现物种贫乏现象，即生物损耗（biotic attrition）。为应对温度变化，动物可调整其空间分布或时间活动节律，但生态位的这两个维度极少被同时纳入研究考量。我们针对婆罗洲雨林哺乳动物物种，沿海拔与温度梯度评估了其时空生态位（spatio-temporal niche）特征。即便在极端悲观的变暖情景下，多数物种的时空生态位可用度也预计不会发生改变。物种对温度的响应无法通过系统发育（phylogeny）关系预测，但似乎与功能性状相关——体型较小的类群其响应差异显著更大。大气环流模式（General circulation models）与气象站观测数据显示，本世纪后期将出现史无前例的正午高温；小型物种对此次变暖的响应可使时空生态位可用度在6%的增幅至9%的降幅之间波动，而大型物种的预计变化率接近0%。因此，体重可能是决定气候变化“赢家”与“输家”的关键生态功能性状。随着温度升高，部分区域的哺乳动物物种组成可能会发生改变，但本世纪出现全面性生物损耗的可能性极低。 使用说明 检测数据：按地理位置、时间及体重分类的检测数据文件（Dryad.csv）