Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild

The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick-insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable ‘up-and-down’ fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back towards it via NFDS. Finally, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds..., We compiled data on morph frequencies in Timema cristinae using samples collected in the spring using sweep nets between 1990 and 2023. All individuals were scored as 'striped', 'unstriped', or 'melanistic', or occasionally when it was difficult to distinguish between the first two categories as 'intermediate-striped'. Samples from 1990 to 1999 were collected and scored by Cristina Sandoval, who then trained PN in 2000. PN collected and scored most samples from 2000 to 2023. The host-plant collected on was recorded for all individuals. Datasets from two field experiments are included as well. Experiment 1. A total of 513 individuals were collected from populations LA (latitude 34.41, longitude -119.80), PRC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.86), PRNC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.85),  VPC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.85), and WTA (latitude 34.52, longitude -119.78) between April 30th and May 4th, 2021. Numbers were as follows: green-unstriped morphs, LA 17, PRC 64, PRNC 58, VPC 71..., All datasets are provided as ASCII text files. , # Dataset: Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild --- We compiled data on morph frequencies inTimema cristinae using samples collected in the spring using sweep nets between 1990 and 2023. All individual were scored as 'striped', 'unstriped', or 'melanistic', or occasionally when it was difficult to distinguish between the first two categories as 'intermediate-striped'. Samples from 1990 to 1999 were collected and scored by Cristina Sandoval, who then trained PN in 2000. PN collected and scored most samples from 2000 to 2023. The host-plant collected on was recorded for all individuals. Datasets from two field experiments are included as well. Experiment 1. A total of 513 individuals were collected from populations LA (latitude 34.41, longitude -119.80), PRC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.86), PRNC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.85), VPC (latitude 34.53, longitude -119.85), and WTA (latitude 34.52, longitude -119.78) between April 30th and May 4th, 202...演化的可重复性程度仍是学界争论的焦点。本研究针对10项重复开展的野生竹节虫（stick-insect）长期野外研究展开分析，聚焦其隐蔽色型（cryptic color-pattern morphs）频率随时间的变化，所有研究时长均不少于10年，总数据跨度达30年。我们发现所有种群的条纹型个体频率均呈现可预测的‘上下波动’模式，这表明基于现存遗传变异的演化动力学具备可重复性。一项野外实验证实，此类波动由负频率依赖型自然选择（negative frequency-dependent natural selection, NFDS）介导。这类波动依赖于使种群偏离平衡态的种群统计与选择变异，使得种群可通过负频率依赖型自然选择可靠地回归平衡状态。最后，我们发现新型隐蔽形态的起源与多个结构基因组变异（structural genomic variants）相关，即突变的发生会在更大时间尺度上影响演化进程。由此可见，基于现存遗传变异的演化具有可预测性与可重复性，但新突变的加入则…… 我们通过1990年至2023年春季扫网采集的样本，整理了梯美竹节虫（Timema cristinae）的色型频率数据。所有个体被划分为"条纹型""无条纹型""黑化型"，若难以区分前两类，则记为"中间条纹型"。1990年至1999年的样本由Cristina Sandoval采集并分类，她于2000年对PN开展培训；2000年至2023年的多数样本由PN采集并分类。所有个体的寄主植物信息均被记录。 本数据集同时包含两项野外实验的数据。 实验1：2021年4月30日至5月4日，从LA（纬度34.41，经度-119.80）、PRC（纬度34.53，经度-119.86）、PRNC（纬度34.53，经度-119.85）、VPC（纬度34.53，经度-119.85）以及WTA（纬度34.52，经度-119.78）种群中共采集513个个体。各群体的绿-无条纹型个体数量如下：LA组17只、PRC组64只、PRNC组58只、VPC组71只……所有数据集均以ASCII文本文件格式提供。 # 数据集：野外重复长期研究证实演化可重复 —— 我们通过1990年至2023年春季扫网采集的样本，整理了梯美竹节虫（Timema cristinae）的色型频率数据。所有个体被划分为"条纹型""无条纹型""黑化型"，若难以区分前两类，则记为"中间条纹型"。1990年至1999年的样本由Cristina Sandoval采集并分类，她于2000年对PN开展培训；2000年至2023年的多数样本由PN采集并分类。所有个体的寄主植物信息均被记录。 本数据集同时包含两项野外实验的数据。 实验1：2021年4月30日至5月4日，从LA（纬度34.41，经度-119.80）、PRC（纬度34.53，经度-119.86）、PRNC（纬度34.53，经度-119.85）、VPC（纬度34.53，经度-119.85）以及WTA（纬度34.52，经度-119.78）种群中共采集513个个体。各群体的绿-无条纹型个体数量如下：LA组17只、PRC组64只、PRNC组58只、VPC组71只……