Understanding habitat selection of range-expanding populations of large carnivores: 20 years of grey wolves (Canis lupus) recolonizing Germany

Aim: The non-stationarity in habitat selection of expanding populations poses a significant challenge for spatial forecasting. Focusing on the grey wolf (Canis lupus) natural recolonization of Germany, we compared the performance of different distribution modelling approaches for predicting habitat suitability in unoccupied areas. Furthermore, we analysed whether grey wolf showed non-stationarity in habitat selection in newly colonized areas, which will impact the predictions for potential habitat.
Location: Germany
Methods: Using telemetry data as presence points, we compared the predictive performance of five modelling approaches based on combinations of distribution modelling algorithms –GLMM, MaxEnt, and ensemble modelling– and two background point selection strategies. We used a homogeneous Poisson point process to draw background points from either the minimum convex polygons derived from telemetry or the whole area known to be occupied by wolves. Models were fit to the data of th...