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What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?

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NBER2004-08-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The model

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2004-08-01
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