Seasonal Forecasting of Western US Precipitation: Interpretable Machine Learning Trained on Large Climate Model Simulations

A barrier to utilizing machine learning in seasonal forecasting applications is the limited sample size of observational data for model training. To circumvent this issue, we explore the feasibility of training various machine learning approaches on a large climate model ensemble, providing a long training set with physically consistent model realizations. After training on thousands of seasons of climate model simulations, the machine learning models are tested for producing seasonal forecasts across the historical observational period (1980-2020). For forecasting large scale spatial patterns of precipitation across the Western United States, the machine learning based models are capable of competing with or outperforming existing dynamical models from the North American Multi Model Ensemble. We further show that this approach need not be considered a ‘black box’ by utilizing machine learning interpretability methods to identify the relevant physical processes that lead to prediction skill.