Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millenium using Large Ensemble Simulations, scalar time series, 2008-3007

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the ensemble statistics for the scalar time series at percentiles 5, 16, 50, 84, and 95.

格陵兰冰盖（Greenland Ice Sheet）的冰量等效于约7.2米的海平面上升量。近数十年来，大气与海洋温度上升导致其冰量流失速率加快，1991至2015年间，格陵兰冰盖平均每年使全球平均海平面上升约0.5毫米。当前格陵兰冰缘退缩主要由入海冰川（outlet glaciers）的后退驱动——这类大型冰流以狭窄峡湾为终点，负责将冰盖内部的冰体输送入海。近年来冰厚度测量技术的进步，使得冰盖模型能够复现入海冰川复杂的流动模式，这是实现可靠海平面预估的关键一步。本研究将可解析入海冰川过程的冰盖模型与全面的不确定性量化方法相结合，以估算不同气候强迫下未来千年内格陵兰冰盖对海平面的贡献。我们发现，到2100年时，格陵兰冰盖或使海平面上升5至33厘米；到2200年则为11至155厘米，其中入海冰川的冰体输出贡献了总冰量流失的6%至45%。分析表明，冰量流失预估的不确定性主要来自气候情景与地表过程的不确定性，其次为冰动力学过程，而海洋条件的不确定性影响较小，在长期尺度上尤为如此。我们预估，若不显著减少温室气体排放，格陵兰冰盖极有可能在千年内完全消融。本数据集汇编包含针对论文《未来千年内格陵兰冰盖对海平面的贡献》（Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium）的模拟结果，该模拟采用平行冰盖模型（Parallel Ice Sheet Model, PISM）完成。本数据集提供了5、16、50、84、95百分位数下标量时间序列的集合统计量。