A stocktake of selected agricultural markets of the European Union - Opportunities for Australia

Overview \r\n The report A stocktake of selected agricultural markets of the European Union: Opportunities for Australia compiles five articles on EU agricultural industries that were originally published in ABARES Agricultural Commodities quarterly reports between June 2016 and March 2017. These articles were on almonds, beef, dairy, sheep meat and sugar. The report examines EU domestic policies and markets, and trade opportunities for Australia. \r\n\r\n Key Issues \r\n• Since the mid 1990s the share of total Australian exports destined for the EU has been declining in favour of more lucrative and geographically closer Asian markets. \r\n• Part of the reason for the decline in the share of Australian exports to the EU has been caused by the regulation that supports the EU agricultural sector. EU agricultural imports are subject to restrictive quotas, in-quota tariffs and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. \r\n• The Australian Government and the European Commission are working towards commencing negotiations for a free trade agreement. As the European Union is one of the largest consumers of agricultural goods in the world, a preferential agreement that improves access to the EU market may present opportunities for Australian agricultural exporters. \r\n• The commodities covered in this report are almonds, beef, dairy, sheep meat and sugar. These are high value or growing Australian agricultural industries. \r\n• The EU imports agricultural products from a large number of countries and has numerous existing trade arrangements with these countries. Australia therefore faces significant competition in the EU market for the five commodities. \r\n• The articles discuss the existing trade trends and EU policies for each of the five commodities. For beef, dairy and sugar it is posited that only a significant reduction in tariffs or enlargement of quotas would precipitate a strong diversion of Australian trade away from the geographically closer Asian markets to the European Union. This is because of weakening EU import demand given growing supplies of lower-priced, domestically produced product. \r\n• Australian exports of sheep meat to the European Union are constrained by a relatively small quota of 20,000 tonnes, which it has largely filled in each of the past 5 years. Australian exporters of sheep meat would benefit from improved access to that market given strengthening EU demand for sheep meat and relatively high prices. \r\n• EU imports of almonds are subject to a low tariff and import demand has been growing steadily. Removal of the tariff on Australian almonds would improve Australia's relative competitiveness but gains are expected to be modest over the medium term given the dominant foothold of the United States in the EU almond market. \r\n• The effect of Brexit on EU agricultural commodities markets and trade is uncertain at this stage. \r\n

概述
《欧盟部分农产品市场评估报告：澳大利亚的机遇》汇编了五篇关于欧盟农业产业的文章，这些文章最初于2016年6月至2017年3月期间发表于澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences，ABARES）的《农产品季刊》（Agricultural Commodities），涉及品类涵盖杏仁、牛肉、乳制品、绵羊肉与食糖。本报告旨在分析欧盟国内政策与市场格局，以及澳大利亚对欧农产品贸易的潜在机遇。

核心议题
• 自20世纪90年代中期以来，澳大利亚出口总额中流向欧盟的占比持续下滑，出口更多转向收益更高、地理距离更近的亚洲市场。
• 澳大利亚对欧出口占比下滑的部分原因，在于欧盟扶持本国农业产业的监管政策。欧盟对农产品进口实施限制性配额、配额内关税以及高额的配额外关税。
• 澳大利亚联邦政府与欧盟委员会正推进启动自由贸易协定谈判。作为全球最大的农产品消费市场之一，若能达成改善欧盟市场准入条件的特惠贸易协定，将为澳大利亚农产品出口商带来可观机遇。
• 本报告涵盖的五类农产品均属于澳大利亚高附加值或处于增长期的农业产业。
• 欧盟从全球多国进口农产品，并与多数贸易伙伴建有成熟的贸易安排，因此澳大利亚在欧盟市场的上述五类农产品均面临激烈竞争。
• 各篇文章分别针对五类农产品探讨了当前贸易趋势与欧盟相关政策。针对牛肉、乳制品与食糖，报告指出，只有大幅削减关税或扩大进口配额，才会促使澳大利亚农产品贸易从地理距离更近的亚洲市场大规模转向欧盟市场。这是由于欧盟本土低价农产品供应持续增长，导致其进口需求疲软。
• 澳大利亚绵羊肉对欧出口受限于2万吨的小额进口配额，且过去五年间该配额基本每年都被全额使用。鉴于欧盟绵羊肉进口需求持续走强且价格处于高位，若能改善该市场的准入条件，澳大利亚绵羊肉出口商将从中获益。
• 欧盟杏仁进口关税税率较低，且进口需求持续稳步增长。取消澳大利亚杏仁的进口关税将提升其相对竞争力，但考虑到美国在欧盟杏仁市场占据主导地位，中期内澳大利亚的收益预计较为有限。
• 目前英国脱欧对欧盟农产品市场及贸易的影响尚不明朗。