GloFAS: seasonal outlook

This data set composes of three separate layers, each providing a global seasonal outlook on flow anomalies and their probability of occurrence; one at predefined locations, one for the river network and the last aggregated over river basins.

River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next 4 month. The anomaly is calculated from the current seasonal forecast (produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecast) with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 24-year model climatology run (1990 - 2013). The seasonal forecast outlook plots are updated on a weekly basis with the latest weekly averaged water balance. A new seasonal forecast outlook (map and plots) is generated at the beginning of each month when the new forecast becomes available (usually on the 8th of the month).

This information is produced once a week by the operational GloFAS (www.globalfloods.eu) for the entire globe in order to provide the GloFAS user with a first glimpse of an upcoming seasonal tendency.