electricsheepafrica/african-plastic-recycling-value-chain

---
title: African Plastic Recycling Value Chain
description: >-
Comprehensive dataset tracking plastic waste generation, collection, recycling,
and circular economy metrics across 12 African countries from 2020-2035 under
three policy scenarios: baseline, extended producer responsibility (EPR), and
circular innovation. Covers 7 plastic types (PET, HDPE, PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Other)
with 18,000+ records including informal sector participation, market prices,
carbon savings, and investment tracking.
language: en
license: cc-by-4.0
keywords:
- plastic recycling
- circular economy
- Africa
- waste management
- extended producer responsibility
- informal sector
- waste pickers
- PET
- HDPE
- recycling rates
- carbon emissions
- EPR policy
- UNEP
- World Bank
- Ellen MacArthur Foundation
configs:
- config_name: baseline
description: >-
Current trajectory with existing policies and infrastructure.
Represents continuation of present-day collection rates, recycling
infrastructure, and informal sector dynamics without major policy shifts.
Collection rates grow organically at ~2% annually.
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_baseline.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: extended_producer_responsibility
description: >-
Full EPR implementation scenario where producer fees fund collection
and recycling infrastructure. Collection rates increase 25%, recycling
rates increase 45%, and 35% of informal waste pickers are formalized
into cooperatives with improved income and working conditions.
Based on EPR policy impact literature from EMF and UNEP reports.
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_extended_producer_responsibility.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: circular_innovation
description: >-
Advanced circular economy scenario with chemical recycling adoption,
AI-powered sorting, digital material tracking, and design-for-recycling
mandates. Near-doubling of recycling rates, 60% informal sector
formalization, and 40% contamination reduction through technology.
Represents ambitious but achievable circular economy transition.
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_circular_innovation.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: combined
description: >-
All three scenarios combined in a single file for cross-scenario analysis.
Useful for comparing policy interventions and modeling transition pathways.
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_combined.csv
num_records: 48384
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
scenarios: 3
time_range: 2020-2035
---

# African Plastic Recycling Value Chain Dataset

A comprehensive dataset tracking the plastic recycling value chain across **12 African countries** from **2020-2035** under **3 policy scenarios**. This dataset supports research on circular economy transitions, waste management policy evaluation, informal sector integration, and climate impact assessment in African contexts.

## Dataset Overview

| Dimension | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| **Countries** | 12 (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Senegal, Tunisia, Rwanda, Ivory Coast) |
| **Plastic Types** | 7 (PET, HDPE, PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Other) |
| **Scenarios** | 3 (baseline, extended_producer_responsibility, circular_innovation) |
| **Time Period** | 2020-2035 (monthly resolution) |
| **Total Records** | 54,432 (18,144 per scenario) |
| **Columns** | 56 |

## Countries Covered

| Country | Region | Income Level | Population (M) | Baseline Recycling Rate |
|---------|--------|-------------|----------------|------------------------|
| South Africa | Southern Africa | Lower-Middle | 60.4 | 28.4% |
| Nigeria | West Africa | Lower-Middle | 218.5 | 9.0% |
| Kenya | East Africa | Lower-Middle | 54.0 | 12.0% |
| Egypt | North Africa | Lower-Middle | 104.3 | 15.0% |
| Morocco | North Africa | Lower-Middle | 37.1 | 13.0% |
| Ghana | West Africa | Lower-Middle | 32.8 | 7.0% |
| Ethiopia | East Africa | Low | 120.3 | 6.0% |
| Tanzania | East Africa | Low | 63.6 | 5.0% |
| Senegal | West Africa | Low | 17.3 | 8.0% |
| Tunisia | North Africa | Lower-Middle | 12.0 | 14.0% |
| Rwanda | East Africa | Low | 13.5 | 10.0% |
| Ivory Coast | West Africa | Lower-Middle | 27.5 | 6.0% |

## Scenarios

### 1. Baseline
Current trajectory with existing policies and infrastructure. Collection rates grow organically at ~2% annually. Represents the "business as usual" pathway without major policy interventions.

### 2. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)
Full EPR implementation where producer fees fund collection and recycling infrastructure. Key impacts:
- Collection rates increase 25%
- Recycling rates increase 45%
- 35% of informal waste pickers formalized
- Investment doubles
- 20% contamination reduction

### 3. Circular Innovation
Advanced circular economy with chemical recycling, AI sorting, digital tracking, and design-for-recycling mandates. Key impacts:
- Collection rates increase 40%
- Recycling rates increase 80%
- 60% informal sector formalization
- 3.5x investment increase
- 40% contamination reduction

## Columns

### Identification
- `country` - Country name
- `region` - African region (North, West, East, Southern)
- `income_level` - World Bank income classification
- `scenario` - Policy scenario
- `year` - Year (2020-2035)
- `month` - Month (1-12)
- `date` - Date string (YYYY-MM)

### Country Context
- `population_millions` - Population in millions
- `urbanization_rate` - Urban population share
- `gdp_per_capita_usd` - GDP per capita in USD

### Plastic Type
- `plastic_type` - Resin type (PET, HDPE, PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Other)
- `plastic_share_of_waste` - Share of total plastic waste stream
- `recycling_process` - Primary recycling method
- `primary_applications` - Main use cases

### Waste Generation & Collection
- `plastic_waste_generated_tons` - Monthly plastic waste generated (tons)
- `total_monthly_waste_tons` - Total monthly waste (tons)
- `collection_rate` - Fraction of waste collected
- `collected_waste_tons` - Total collected (tons)
- `informal_collection_tons` - Collected by informal sector (tons)
- `formal_collection_tons` - Collected by formal sector (tons)

### Sorting & Processing
- `sorting_infrastructure_score` - Infrastructure availability (0-1)
- `sorting_efficiency` - Actual sorting efficiency (0-1)
- `sorting_utilization_rate` - Facility utilization (0-1)
- `recycling_facilities_count` - Number of operational facilities
- `recycling_rate` - Fraction of collected plastic recycled
- `recycled_output_tons` - Gross recycled output (tons)
- `recycling_loss_tons` - Process losses (tons)
- `net_resin_output_tons` - Net recycled resin output (tons)
- `food_grade_recycled_share` - Share suitable for food contact
- `non_food_grade_recycled_share` - Share for non-food applications

### Market Economics
- `recycled_material_price_usd_per_ton` - Recycled resin price
- `virgin_material_price_usd_per_ton` - Virgin resin price
- `price_discount_vs_virgin_pct` - Discount of recycled vs virgin (%)
- `market_demand_score` - Market demand indicator (0-1)
- `revenue_from_recycled_usd` - Monthly revenue from recycled materials
- `waste_picker_revenue_usd` - Monthly revenue to waste pickers

### Informal Sector
- `informal_sector_share` - Share of collection by informal sector
- `formal_sector_share` - Share of collection by formal sector
- `waste_picker_population` - Estimated waste picker population
- `waste_pickers_active` - Estimated active waste pickers
- `waste_picker_monthly_income_usd` - Average monthly income
- `cooperative_participation_rate` - Share in cooperatives
- `informal_formalization_rate` - Scenario formalization rate

### Policy & Governance
- `contamination_rate` - Contamination in collected recyclables
- `policy_enforcement_score` - Policy enforcement effectiveness (0-1)
- `epr_status` - EPR policy status
- `epr_effectiveness` - EPR implementation effectiveness (0-1)
- `epr_fees_collected_usd` - Monthly EPR fees collected
- `plastic_ban_policy` - Plastic ban policy status

### Investment & Trade
- `monthly_investment_usd` - Monthly recycling infrastructure investment
- `annual_investment_usd` - Annual recycling infrastructure investment
- `export_recyclables_tons` - Recyclables exported (tons)
- `export_share_of_collected` - Export share of collected recyclables

### Environmental Impact
- `carbon_saved_tons_co2e` - Monthly CO2e emissions avoided
- `landfill_diverted_tons` - Waste diverted from landfill (tons)

## Usage

### Installation
```bash
pip install -r requirements.txt
```

### Generate Dataset
```bash
python generate_dataset.py
```

### Validate Dataset
```bash
python validate_dataset.py
```

### Load in Python
```python
import pandas as pd

# Load specific scenario
baseline = pd.read_csv("african_plastic_recycling_baseline.csv")

# Load all scenarios
combined = pd.read_csv("african_plastic_recycling_combined.csv")

# Analyze recycling rates by country and scenario
recycling_by_country = combined.groupby(
["country", "scenario"]
)["recycling_rate"].mean().unstack()

# Compare carbon savings across scenarios
carbon_savings = combined.groupby(
["country", "scenario"]
)["carbon_saved_tons_co2e"].sum().unstack()
```

## Research Sources

Parameters are calibrated from the following authoritative sources:

1. **UNEP Africa Waste Management Outlook** (2018) - Collection rates, recycling infrastructure, waste generation estimates
2. **UNEP Global Waste Management Outlook** (2024) - Updated waste management statistics and projections
3. **World Bank What a Waste 2.0/3.0** - Per capita waste generation, urbanization, collection coverage
4. **Ellen MacArthur Foundation** - Circular economy policy impacts, EPR effectiveness, design for recycling
5. **Plastics SA Recycling Figures 2024** - South Africa recycling rate (28.4%), plastic type distributions
6. **WIEGO Informal Economy Studies** - Waste picker demographics, income levels, informal sector contributions
7. **Godfrey (2021)** - Quantifying economic activity in South Africa's informal recycling sector
8. **AECF Circular Economy Reports** - African circular economy innovation and investment
9. **African Circular Economy Alliance** - Regional circular economy policy frameworks

## Key Parameter Calibrations

| Parameter | Source | Value Range |
|-----------|--------|-------------|
| Plastic waste per capita | World Bank What a Waste 2.0 | 12-52 kg/year |
| PET share of waste stream | Plastics Europe / Plastics SA | 18% |
| HDPE share of waste stream | Plastics Europe / Plastics SA | 16% |
| PET recyclability rate | Ellen MacArthur Foundation | 75% |
| PVC recyclability rate | Ellen MacArthur Foundation | 35% |
| EPR collection increase | EMF EPR policy reports | 20-30% |
| EPR recycling increase | EMF EPR policy reports | 40-60% |
| Waste picker income | WIEGO / Godfrey 2021 | $50-300/month |
| Carbon factor (PET) | Life cycle assessment literature | 2.5 tCO2e/t recycled |
| Informal sector share (SA) | Godfrey 2021 | 65% |
| Informal sector share (Nigeria) | WIEGO estimates | 80% |

## License

This dataset is licensed under [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

## Citation

If you use this dataset in your research, please cite:

```
Electric Sheep Africa. (2026). African Plastic Recycling Value Chain Dataset.
Parameters calibrated from UNEP Africa Waste Management Outlook, World Bank
What a Waste 2.0/3.0, Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy reports,
and peer-reviewed literature on African informal recycling sectors.
```

---
title: 非洲塑料回收价值链数据集
description: >-
本数据集为综合性数据集，追踪2020-2035年间12个非洲国家在三种政策场景（基准情景、生产者责任延伸（Extended Producer Responsibility, EPR）情景及循环创新情景）下的塑料废物产生、收集、回收与循环经济相关指标。数据集涵盖7类塑料（PET、HDPE、PVC、LDPE、PP、PS及其他），包含18000余条记录，涵盖非正规部门参与度、市场价格、碳减排量及投资追踪等维度。
language: 英语
license: CC BY 4.0
keywords:
- 塑料回收
- 循环经济
- 非洲
- 废物管理
- 生产者责任延伸
- 非正规部门
- 拾荒者
- PET
- HDPE
- 回收率
- 碳排放
- EPR政策
- 联合国环境规划署（UNEP）
- 世界银行（World Bank）
- 埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation）
configs:
- config_name: baseline
description: >-
基于现有政策与基础设施的发展轨迹，代表无重大政策调整时，当前收集率、回收基础设施及非正规部门动态的延续，收集率以每年约2%的速度自然增长。
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_baseline.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: extended_producer_responsibility
description: >-
全面实施生产者责任延伸制度的场景，由生产者付费支持收集与回收基础设施建设。收集率提升25%，回收率提升45%，35%的非正规拾荒者被整合为合作社，收入与工作条件得到改善。本场景基于埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation）与联合国环境规划署（UNEP）报告中的EPR政策影响研究。
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_extended_producer_responsibility.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: circular_innovation
description: >-
采用化学回收、人工智能分拣、数字化物料追踪及可回收设计强制标准的先进循环经济场景。回收率提升近一倍，非正规部门正规化比例达60%，通过技术手段降低40%的污染率，代表了具有可行性的雄心勃勃的循环经济转型路径。
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_circular_innovation.csv
num_records: 16128
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
time_range: 2020-2035
- config_name: combined
description: >-
将三种情景整合为单个文件的数据集，用于跨情景分析，便于对比政策干预效果与模拟转型路径。
data_files:
- split: train
path: african_plastic_recycling_combined.csv
num_records: 48384
countries: 12
plastic_types: 7
scenarios: 3
time_range: 2020-2035
---

# 非洲塑料回收价值链数据集

本数据集追踪12个非洲国家2020-2035年间的塑料回收价值链，涵盖三种政策场景，可用于非洲语境下的循环经济转型、废物管理政策评估、非正规部门整合及气候影响评估相关研究。

## 数据集概览

| 维度 | 数值 |
|-----------|-------|
| **覆盖国家** | 12个（南非、尼日利亚、肯尼亚、埃及、摩洛哥、加纳、埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚、塞内加尔、突尼斯、卢旺达、科特迪瓦） |
| **塑料类型** | 7类（PET、HDPE、PVC、LDPE、PP、PS及其他） |
| **政策场景** | 3种（基准情景、生产者责任延伸情景、循环创新情景） |
| **时间范围** | 2020-2035（月度分辨率） |
| **总记录数** | 54432条（每个场景18144条） |
| **字段数** | 56个 |

## 覆盖国家

| 国家 | 地区 | 收入水平 | 人口（百万） | 基准回收率 |
|---------|--------|-------------|----------------|------------------------|
| 南非 | 南部非洲 | 中低收入 | 60.4 | 28.4% |
| 尼日利亚 | 西部非洲 | 中低收入 | 218.5 | 9.0% |
| 肯尼亚 | 东部非洲 | 中低收入 | 54.0 | 12.0% |
| 埃及 | 北部非洲 | 中低收入 | 104.3 | 15.0% |
| 摩洛哥 | 北部非洲 | 中低收入 | 37.1 | 13.0% |
| 加纳 | 西部非洲 | 中低收入 | 32.8 | 7.0% |
| 埃塞俄比亚 | 东部非洲 | 低收入 | 120.3 | 6.0% |
| 坦桑尼亚 | 东部非洲 | 低收入 | 63.6 | 5.0% |
| 塞内加尔 | 西部非洲 | 低收入 | 17.3 | 8.0% |
| 突尼斯 | 北部非洲 | 中低收入 | 12.0 | 14.0% |
| 卢旺达 | 东部非洲 | 低收入 | 13.5 | 10.0% |
| 科特迪瓦 | 西部非洲 | 中低收入 | 27.5 | 6.0% |

## 政策场景

### 1. 基准情景
当前发展轨迹，基于现有政策与基础设施，收集率以每年约2%的速度自然增长，代表无重大政策干预的“一切照常”路径。

### 2. 生产者责任延伸（EPR）情景
全面实施生产者责任延伸制度，由生产者付费支持收集与回收基础设施建设。主要影响包括：
- 收集率提升25%
- 回收率提升45%
- 35%的非正规拾荒者实现正规化
- 投资翻倍
- 污染率降低20%

### 3. 循环创新情景
采用化学回收、人工智能分拣、数字化物料追踪及可回收设计强制标准的先进循环经济模式。主要影响包括：
- 收集率提升40%
- 回收率提升80%
- 非正规部门正规化比例达60%
- 投资增长3.5倍
- 污染率降低40%

## 字段说明

### 识别字段
- `country` - 国家名称
- `region` - 非洲地区（北部、西部、东部、南部）
- `income_level` - 世界银行（World Bank）收入分类标准
- `scenario` - 政策场景
- `year` - 年份（2020-2035）
- `month` - 月份（1-12）
- `date` - 日期字符串（YYYY-MM）

### 国家背景字段
- `population_millions` - 人口（百万）
- `urbanization_rate` - 城镇人口占比
- `gdp_per_capita_usd` - 人均GDP（美元）

### 塑料类型字段
- `plastic_type` - 树脂类型（PET、HDPE、PVC、LDPE、PP、PS及其他）
- `plastic_share_of_waste` - 塑料废物流占比
- `recycling_process` - 主要回收方法
- `primary_applications` - 主要应用场景

### 废物产生与收集
- `plastic_waste_generated_tons` - 月度塑料废物产生量（吨）
- `total_monthly_waste_tons` - 月度总废物量（吨）
- `collection_rate` - 废物收集率（0-1）
- `collected_waste_tons` - 总收集废物量（吨）
- `informal_collection_tons` - 非正规部门收集量（吨）
- `formal_collection_tons` - 正规部门收集量（吨）

### 分拣与处理
- `sorting_infrastructure_score` - 分拣基础设施可用性评分（0-1）
- `sorting_efficiency` - 实际分拣效率（0-1）
- `sorting_utilization_rate` - 设施利用率（0-1）
- `recycling_facilities_count` - 运营回收设施数量
- `recycling_rate` - 回收塑料占收集塑料的比例（0-1）
- `recycled_output_tons` - 总回收产出量（吨）
- `recycling_loss_tons` - 加工损耗量（吨）
- `net_resin_output_tons` - 净回收树脂产出量（吨）
- `food_grade_recycled_share` - 可用于食品接触的回收材料占比
- `non_food_grade_recycled_share` - 用于非食品场景的回收材料占比

### 市场经济维度
- `recycled_material_price_usd_per_ton` - 回收树脂价格（美元/吨）
- `virgin_material_price_usd_per_ton` - 原生树脂价格（美元/吨）
- `price_discount_vs_virgin_pct` - 回收材料相对于原生材料的价格折扣（%）
- `market_demand_score` - 市场需求指标（0-1）
- `revenue_from_recycled_usd` - 回收材料月度营收（美元）
- `waste_picker_revenue_usd` - 拾荒者月度收入（美元）

### 非正规部门
- `informal_sector_share` - 非正规部门收集占比
- `formal_sector_share` - 正规部门收集占比
- `waste_picker_population` - 拾荒者估计总人口
- `waste_pickers_active` - 活跃拾荒者估计数量
- `waste_picker_monthly_income_usd` - 拾荒者平均月度收入（美元）
- `cooperative_participation_rate` - 加入合作社的比例
- `informal_formalization_rate` - 场景正规化率

### 政策与治理
- `contamination_rate` - 收集可回收物的污染率
- `policy_enforcement_score` - 政策执行有效性评分（0-1）
- `epr_status` - EPR政策状态
- `epr_effectiveness` - EPR实施有效性评分（0-1）
- `epr_fees_collected_usd` - 月度EPR收费总额（美元）
- `plastic_ban_policy` - 塑料禁令政策状态

### 投资与贸易
- `monthly_investment_usd` - 回收基础设施月度投资（美元）
- `annual_investment_usd` - 回收基础设施年度投资（美元）
- `export_recyclables_tons` - 可回收物出口量（吨）
- `export_share_of_collected` - 出口可回收物占收集总量的比例

### 环境影响
- `carbon_saved_tons_co2e` - 月度避免的CO₂当量排放量（吨）
- `landfill_diverted_tons` - 从填埋场转移的废物量（吨）

## 使用指南

### 安装
bash
pip install -r requirements.txt

### 生成数据集
bash
python generate_dataset.py

### 验证数据集
bash
python validate_dataset.py

### Python加载示例
python
import pandas as pd

# 加载指定场景
baseline = pd.read_csv("african_plastic_recycling_baseline.csv")

# 加载所有场景
combined = pd.read_csv("african_plastic_recycling_combined.csv")

# 按国家与场景分组计算平均回收率
recycling_by_country = combined.groupby(
["country", "scenario"]
)["recycling_rate"].mean().unstack()

# 对比不同场景的碳减排总量
carbon_savings = combined.groupby(
["country", "scenario"]
)["carbon_saved_tons_co2e"].sum().unstack()

## 研究数据来源

本数据集的参数校准来自以下权威来源：

1. **联合国环境规划署（UNEP）《非洲废物管理展望》（2018）** - 收集率、回收基础设施、废物产生量估算
2. **联合国环境规划署（UNEP）《全球废物管理展望》（2024）** - 更新的废物管理统计数据与预测
3. **世界银行（World Bank）《What a Waste 2.0/3.0》** - 人均废物产生量、城镇化率、收集覆盖率
4. **埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation）** - 循环经济政策影响、EPR有效性、可回收设计
5. **Plastics SA Recycling Figures 2024** - 南非回收率（28.4%）、塑料类型分布
6. **WIEGO非正规经济研究** - 拾荒者人口统计、收入水平、非正规部门贡献
7. **Godfrey (2021)** - 南非非正规回收部门的经济活动量化
8. **非洲经济发展基金会（AECF）循环经济报告** - 非洲循环经济创新与投资
9. **非洲循环经济联盟** - 区域循环经济政策框架

## 关键参数校准

| 参数 | 数据来源 | 数值范围 |
|-----------|--------|-------------|
| 人均塑料废物产生量 | 世界银行（World Bank）《What a Waste 2.0》 | 12-52 kg/年 |
| 塑料废物流中PET占比 | 欧洲塑料工业协会/南非塑料工业协会 | 18% |
| 塑料废物流中HDPE占比 | 欧洲塑料工业协会/南非塑料工业协会 | 16% |
| PET回收率 | 埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation） | 75% |
| PVC回收率 | 埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation） | 35% |
| EPR收集率提升幅度 | 埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation）EPR政策报告 | 20-30% |
| EPR回收率提升幅度 | 埃伦·麦克阿瑟基金会（Ellen MacArthur Foundation）EPR政策报告 | 40-60% |
| 拾荒者收入 | WIEGO/Godfrey 2021 | 50-300美元/月 |
| 碳减排系数（PET） | 生命周期评估文献 | 2.5 tCO2e/t回收塑料 |
| 南非非正规部门占比 | Godfrey 2021 | 65% |
| 尼日利亚非正规部门占比 | WIEGO估算 | 80% |

## 许可协议

本数据集采用[知识共享署名4.0国际许可协议（CC BY 4.0）](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)进行许可。

## 引用格式

如果您在研究中使用本数据集，请引用如下：

Electric Sheep Africa. (2026). African Plastic Recycling Value Chain Dataset.
Parameters calibrated from UNEP Africa Waste Management Outlook, World Bank
What a Waste 2.0/3.0, Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy reports,
and peer-reviewed literature on African informal recycling sectors.