Data: Experimental evidence of warming-induced disease emergence and its prediction by a trait-based mechanistic model

Predicting the effects of seasonality and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious disease remains difficult, in part because of poorly understood connections between warming and the mechanisms driving disease. Trait-based mechanistic models combined with thermal performance curves arising from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) have been highlighted as a promising approach going forward; however, this framework has not been tested under controlled experimental conditions that isolate the role of gradual temporal warming on disease dynamics and emergence. Here, we provide experimental evidence that a slowly warming host – parasite system can be pushed through a critical transition into an epidemic state. We then show that a trait-based mechanistic model with MTE functional forms can predict the critical temperature for disease emergence, subsequent disease dynamics through time, and final infection prevalence in an experimentally warmed system of Daphnia and a microsp...解析季节波动与气候变化对传染病出现及传播的影响仍是学界难题，部分原因在于气温变暖与传染病驱动机制之间的关联尚未被充分阐明。结合代谢生态学理论（Metabolic Theory of Ecology, MTE）衍生的热性能曲线（thermal performance curves）的基于性状的机制模型（trait-based mechanistic models），被认为是未来极具潜力的研究方向；然而，该框架尚未在可分离逐步持续升温对传染病动态与出现过程具体作用的可控实验条件下得到验证。本研究通过实验证实，缓慢升温的宿主-寄生虫系统可经历临界转变，最终进入流行状态。随后我们证实，搭载代谢生态学理论功能形式的基于性状的机制模型，能够在实验升温的水蚤（Daphnia）与微孢子虫（microsp...）系统中，准确预测传染病出现的临界温度、随时间变化的后续传染病动态，以及最终的感染流行率。