The vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification– a global assessment

Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC-OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluscan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high-quality, healthy and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population.  We modelled the Vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC-OA over the period 2020 to 2100, under RCP8.5.  Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC-OA-related Exposure, taxon-specific Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity in the sector.  Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience Very-high Exposure to CC-OA in at least one decade during the period 2020 - 2100. Predicted high Sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, whilst in some E...