The vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification– a global assessment

Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC-OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluscan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high-quality, healthy and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modelled the Vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC-OA over the period 2020 to 2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC-OA-related Exposure, taxon-specific Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience Very-high Exposure to CC-OA in at least one decade during the period 2020 - 2100. Predicted high Sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, whilst in some E...人为气候变化与海洋酸化（CC-OA）正在改变海洋环境中的物理与生物过程，其对海洋生物的影响机制尚不明晰。在水产养殖业范畴内，软体动物养殖是一种相对友好的生产方式，可为不断增长的全球人口提供优质、健康且可持续的蛋白质来源。本研究针对2020年至2100年期间、典型浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）情景下，全球双壳类海水养殖对CC-OA影响的脆弱性开展了建模分析。本研究在国家尺度开展脆弱性评估，该脆弱性取决于与CC-OA相关的暴露风险、类群特异性敏感性以及该产业的适应能力。2020年至2100年，暴露风险随时间逐步升高，预计有10个国家将在2020至2100年期间的至少一个十年内面临极高的CC-OA暴露风险。发展中国家的高敏感性预测结果主要源于养殖了生境耐受范围较窄的物种，而在部分E……