Replication Data for: Primaries Throught the Looking Glass: the electoral effects of opening the selection of top candidates

In this paper the foundations of existing research regarding the effects of plebiscitarian selection mechanisms on candidates’ electoral strength are revisited. While for existing research parties’ decision-making is not nested, we argue that party primary effects entail the interdependence of party procedures for candidate selection. This paper assesses the validity of the two approaches. Using original data from 7 parties and 296 regional elections in Canada, Germany and Spain, and from 62 pre-election polls in Germany and Spain, we show that, other things equal, primary-selected candidates are not stronger than those selected by other procedures. However, there is evidence of a penalty for those parties not selecting candidates by primary when their main rival does, in particular when the primary election is not divisive and is held closer to the general election.本文重新审视了现有关于公民投票式候选人遴选机制（plebiscitarian selection mechanisms）对候选人选举竞争力影响的研究基础。尽管现有研究均未将政党决策纳入嵌套分析框架，但本文认为，政党初选（party primary）效应实则蕴含着候选人遴选相关政党程序的相互依存性。本文对这两种分析路径的有效性展开了评估。本文依托加拿大、德国与西班牙7个政党及296场地方选举的原始数据，以及德国、西班牙的62份选举前民调数据开展实证分析，结果表明：在其他条件不变的前提下，初选产生的候选人并不比其他遴选方式产生的候选人更具选举竞争力。不过，有实证证据显示，当政党的主要竞争对手采用初选方式遴选候选人时，未采用初选机制的政党会遭遇选举劣势；尤其是当初选未引发党内分裂且举办时间距大选较近时，该劣势效应尤为显著。